Embassy Bancorp (Embassy Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is Embassy Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Embassy Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Embassy Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Embassy Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Embassy Bancorp (Embassy Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Embassy Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:EMYB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Hundred Gateway Drive, Suite 100, Bethlehem, PA, USA, 18017

Website

https://www.embassybank.com

Embassy Bancorp Inc acts as an independent community financial services provider. It offers traditional banking and related financial services to individual, business and government customers. The bank also offers commercial and retail financial services such as savings and demand deposits, commercial loans, consumer loans, residential mortgage, and home equity loans and other financial services. Its other services comprise night depository services, wire transfers, bond coupon redemption, cash management services, and escrow management services among others.

Executives

Lobach David M Jr	director, officer: SEVP, CEO, President	100 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 100, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
John G Englesson	director	5341 ABERDENE STREET, CENTER VALLEY PA 18034
Bernard M Lesavoy	director	ONE WINDSOR PLAZA, SUITE 200, 7535 WINDSOR DR., ALLENTOWN PA 18195-1014
Lynne Marie Neel	other: Executive Vice President	3100 HECKTOWN RD, EASTON PA 18045
Diane Maria Cunningham	officer: Executive Vice President	3311 LORD BYRON DR, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
Michael B Macy	officer: SVP, CLO Business Banking	ONE GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 100, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
Frank Iii Banko	director	100 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 100, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
Geoffrey F Boyer	director	1259 S CEDAR CREST BLVD., SUITE 336, ALLENTOWN PA 18103
Judith A Hunsicker	officer: FEO, COO, CFO	100 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 100, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
Patti Gates Smith	director	8448 REDHAVEN STREET, FOGELSVILLE PA 18051
Brew John P Jr	director	817 W. BROAD ST., BETHLEHEM PA 18018
Elmer D Gates	director	840 YORKSHIRE RD., BETHLEHEM PA 18017
John T Yurconic	director	5910 HAMILTON BLVD, ALLENTOWN PA 18106
Robert P Daday	director	2 N 9TH ST, ALLENTOWN PA 18101-1179
John C Pittman	director	1001 NOR-BATH BLVD, NORTHAMPTON PA 18067