Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Millennial Media Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Millennial Media Predictability Rank Related Terms
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Millennial Media (Millennial Media) Business Description
Millennial Media Inc was incorporated under the laws of the State of Delaware on May 30, 2006. It is an independent mobile advertising platform company. It offers advertisers audience reach, targeting capabilities and deliver rich and engaging ad experiences to consumers on their mobile connected devices. The Company's proprietary technology and data platform, known as MYDAS, determines in real-time which ad to deliver, to whom and when, with the goal of optimizing the effectiveness of advertising campaigns regardless of device type or operating system. It helps developers and advertisers remove complexity from mobile advertising. It provides tools and services to developers that allow their apps to display banner ads, interactive rich media ads and video ads from its platform. By partnering with it, developers gain access to advertising campaigns from advertiser clients as well as smaller performance-based advertisers. Through its mMedia portal, developers can download and integrate its software development kits, or SDKs, into their apps at no cost to them. The Company offers developers sophisticated reporting and analytics through an integrated dashboard on its mMedia portal, which includes comprehensive ad revenue generation reports for their apps across all major mobile operating systems. It offers all developers support through its mMedia portal, as well as various webinars, blogs and, in some cases, support from account managers. It has 72 issued patents, including U.S. and international. The Company is subject to U.S. and foreign laws and regulations that are applicable to companies engaged in the business of advertising on mobile devices. The Company is also subject to privacy and data protection laws.
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