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Blyth (BTH) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $ (As of May. 06, 2024)


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What is Blyth Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-06), Blyth's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Blyth's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Blyth is

The historical rank and industry rank for Blyth's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

BTH's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 1.04
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Blyth Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Blyth's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Blyth Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Blyth Annual Data
Trend Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Blyth Quarterly Data
Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Blyth's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, Blyth's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Blyth's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Blyth's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Blyth's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Blyth Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.49%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Blyth's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=*
=

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= ( - 5.99) /

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Blyth  (NYSE:BTH) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Blyth Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blyth's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Blyth (BTH) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Blyth Inc was incorporated on September 9, 1977. The Company is a multi-channel company focused on the direct to consumer market. The Company designs and markets home fragrance products and decorative accessories, as well as weight management products, nutritional supplements and energy drinks. Its products include decorative and functional household products such as candles, accessories, seasonal decorations, household convenience items and personalized gifts; nutritional supplements such as meal replacement shakes, vitamins and energy mixes; as well as products for the foodservice trade. Its products can be found throughout North America, Europe and Australia. The Company has three business segments the Health and Wellness segment, the Candles and Home Decor segment and the Catalog and Internet segment. Within the Health and Wellness segment, it operates ViSalus, which is sells meal replacement shakes, nutritional supplements, nutritional cookies and energy drinks. Products in this segment are sold through networks of independent sales promoters in the United States and Canada. Within the Candles and Home Decor segment, it designs, manufactures or sources, markets and distributes a line of products including scented candles, candle-related accessories and other fragranced products under the PartyLite brand. PartyLite also offers gourmet foods under the Two Sisters Gourmet by PartyLite brand name. Products in this segment are sold through networks of independent sales consultants. PartyLite brand products are sold in North America, Europe and Australia. Within the Catalog and Internet segment, it designs, sources and markets household convenience items, holiday cards, personalized gifts, kitchen accessories, premium photo albums and frames. These products are sold directly to consumers under the Miles Kimball, Walter Drake, Easy Comforts, As we Change and Exposures brands. These products are sold in North America. Competition in the Candles and Home Decor segment includes companies selling candles manufactured at lower costs through direct selling and retail channels. Competition in the Health and Wellness segment includes companies selling competitive nutritional supplements and weight-loss management products through direct selling and retail channels. In the Health and Wellness and the Candles and Home Decor segments it competes for consultants or promoters with other direct selling companies, both those that sell similar products and those that sell other types of products. The Companys direct selling and network marketing programs are subject to federal and state regulations administered by the FTC and various state agencies as well as regulations in foreign markets administered by foreign agencies.
Executives
Ilan Kaufthal director 143 E LINDEN AVE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WALKERS CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Carlyle Group Inc. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Group Management L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Carlyle Holdings Ii Gp L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Carlyle Holdings Ii L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Tc Group Cayman Investment Holdings Sub L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WALKER CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9001
Carlyle Equity Opportunity Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W. WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Equity Opportunity Gp, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W. WASHINGTON DC 20004
Neal I Goldman director 170 SOUTHPORT DRIVE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Todd Andrew Goergen 10 percent owner 1615 SOUTH 52ND STREET, TEMPE AZ 85281
Anne M Butler officer: President, PartyLite Worldwide 59 ARMSTRONG ROAD, P.O. BOX 976, PLYMOUTH MA 02360
Anne Busquet director 390 PARK AVE 4TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Philip Greer director

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