Hudson City Bancorp (Hudson City Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Hudson City Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hudson City Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hudson City Bancorp (Hudson City Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Hudson City Bancorp Inc (NAS:HCBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

https://www.hcsbonline.com

Hudson City Bancorp Inc is a Delaware corporation organized in 1999. It serves as the holding company of its only subsidiary, Hudson City Savings Bank. The asset of Hudson City Bancorp is its investment in Hudson City Savings Bank. The Company is a community and consumer-oriented retail savings bank offering traditional deposit products, residential real estate mortgage loans and consumer loans. The Company conducts its operations out of its corporate offices in Paramus in Bergen County, New Jersey and through 135 branches in the New York metropolitan area. It operates 97 branches located in 17 counties throughout the State of New Jersey. In New York State, it operates 10 branch offices in Westchester County, 12 branch offices in Suffolk County, 1 branch office each in Putnam and Rockland Counties and 5 branch offices in Richmond County "Staten Island". It also operates 9 branch offices in Fairfield County, Connecticut. The Company's traditional consumer products are conforming one- to four-family residential mortgages, time deposits, checking and savings accounts appeal to a broad customer base. In addition, it purchases mortgages and mortgage-backed securities and other securities issued by U.S. government-sponsored enterprises as well as other investments permitted by applicable laws and regulations. The Company faces intense competition both in making loans and attracting deposits in the market areas it serve. It competes with loans comes from commercial banks, savings institutions, mortgage banking firms, credit unions, finance companies, insurance companies and brokerage firms. The Company's loans are subject to federal and state laws and regulations.

Executives

Denis J Salamone	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Francesco S Rossi	officer: First Vice President	500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Golding Cornelius E	director	WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Scott A Belair	director	1809 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELLPHIA PA 19103
William G Bardel	director	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Tracey A Dedrick	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., PARAMUS NJ 07652
Anthony J Fabiano	director, officer: President and COO	99 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Mcintyre Kenneth A Jr	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
William John Cosgrove	director	20 BUTTONWOOD PLACE, UPPER SADDLE RIVER NJ 07458