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Hudson City Bancorp (Hudson City Bancorp) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $2.39 (As of May. 05, 2024)


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What is Hudson City Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-05), Hudson City Bancorp's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $2.39.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Hudson City Bancorp's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Hudson City Bancorp is -323.43%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Hudson City Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

HCBK's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Banks industry.
Industry Median: 0.675
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Hudson City Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Hudson City Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Hudson City Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Hudson City Bancorp Annual Data
Trend Dec05 Dec06 Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Hudson City Bancorp Quarterly Data
Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Hudson City Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Hudson City Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Hudson City Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Hudson City Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Hudson City Bancorp's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Hudson City Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Hudson City Bancorp's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $0.207.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Hudson City Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=0.207*11.5406
=2.39

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (2.39 - 10.12) / 2.39
= -323.43 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Hudson City Bancorp  (NAS:HCBK) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Hudson City Bancorp Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Hudson City Bancorp's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Hudson City Bancorp (Hudson City Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Hudson City Bancorp Inc is a Delaware corporation organized in 1999. It serves as the holding company of its only subsidiary, Hudson City Savings Bank. The asset of Hudson City Bancorp is its investment in Hudson City Savings Bank. The Company is a community and consumer-oriented retail savings bank offering traditional deposit products, residential real estate mortgage loans and consumer loans. The Company conducts its operations out of its corporate offices in Paramus in Bergen County, New Jersey and through 135 branches in the New York metropolitan area. It operates 97 branches located in 17 counties throughout the State of New Jersey. In New York State, it operates 10 branch offices in Westchester County, 12 branch offices in Suffolk County, 1 branch office each in Putnam and Rockland Counties and 5 branch offices in Richmond County "Staten Island". It also operates 9 branch offices in Fairfield County, Connecticut. The Company's traditional consumer products are conforming one- to four-family residential mortgages, time deposits, checking and savings accounts appeal to a broad customer base. In addition, it purchases mortgages and mortgage-backed securities and other securities issued by U.S. government-sponsored enterprises as well as other investments permitted by applicable laws and regulations. The Company faces intense competition both in making loans and attracting deposits in the market areas it serve. It competes with loans comes from commercial banks, savings institutions, mortgage banking firms, credit unions, finance companies, insurance companies and brokerage firms. The Company's loans are subject to federal and state laws and regulations.
Executives
Denis J Salamone director, officer: Chairman and CEO C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Francesco S Rossi officer: First Vice President 500 HILLS DRIVE, SUITE 300, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Golding Cornelius E director WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Scott A Belair director 1809 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELLPHIA PA 19103
William G Bardel director C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Tracey A Dedrick officer: Executive Vice President C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., PARAMUS NJ 07652
Anthony J Fabiano director, officer: President and COO 99 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Mcintyre Kenneth A Jr officer: Senior Vice President C/O HUDSON CITY BANCORP, INC., WEST 80 CENTURY ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
William John Cosgrove director 20 BUTTONWOOD PLACE, UPPER SADDLE RIVER NJ 07458

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