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Covance (FRA:CVD) Predictability Rank


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What is Covance Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Covance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Covance Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Covance (FRA:CVD) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Covance, Inc is a Delaware Corporation, founded in 1987. The Company is a drug development services company providing early-stage and late-stage product development services mainly to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. It also provides laboratory testing services to the chemical, agrochemical and food industries. Its two reportable segments are early development services, which include discovery support services, preclinical services and clinical pharmacology services; and late-stage development services, which include central laboratory, Phase II-IV clinical development, and market access services. The Company's preclinical services include toxicology services, pharmaceutical chemistry and related services. The Company's preclinical area has been a source of innovation by introducing new technologies for client access to data such as StudyTracker, electronic animal identification, multimedia study reports and animal and test tube measures of induced cell proliferation or reproduction. The Company's preclinical toxicology services include in vivo toxicology studies, which are studies of the effects of drugs in animals, genetic toxicology studies, which include studies of the effects of drugs on chromosomes, as well as on genetically modified mice and other specialized toxicology services. In its pharmaceutical chemistry services, it determines the metabolic profile and bioavailability of drug candidates. It also provides laboratory testing services to the chemical, agricultural chemical and food industries. The Company offers services to agricultural chemical manufacturers to determine the potential risk to humans, animals and the environment from plant protection products such as pesticides. In its nutritional chemistry services, the Company offers a range of services to the food, nutriceutical and animal feed industries, including nutritional analysis and equivalency, nutritional content fact labels, microbiological and chemical contaminant safety analysis, pesticide screening and stability testing. It provides custom polyclonal and monoclonal antibody services for research purposes and purpose-bred animals for biomedical research. The Company provides optimization and translational services including custom immunology and monoclonal antibody services, metabolism studies and pharmacokinetic screening as well as non-GLP toxicology, in vivo pharmacology, imaging services and biomarker services. The Company's bioanalytical testing services helps determine the appropriate dose and frequency of drug application from late discovery evaluation through Phase III clinical testing on a full-scale, globally integrated basis. The Company provides clinical pharmacology services, including first-in-human trials, of new pharmaceuticals at its seven clinics located throughout the United States and its one clinic in Leeds, United Kingdom. The Company offers reimbursement and healthcare economics consulting services

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