Covance (FRA:CVD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : €25.08 (As of May. 26, 2024)

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What is Covance Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-26), Covance's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is €25.08.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Covance's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Covance is -274.80%.

The industry rank for Covance's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:CVD's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry.
Industry Median: 1.26
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Covance Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Covance's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Covance Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Covance Annual Data

Trend

Dec04

Dec05

Dec06

Dec07

Dec08

Dec09

Dec10

Dec11

Dec12

Dec13

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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Covance Quarterly Data
	Dec09	Mar10	Jun10	Sep10	Dec10	Mar11	Jun11	Sep11	Dec11	Mar12	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13	Jun13	Sep13	Dec13	Mar14	Jun14	Sep14
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Covance's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Diagnostics & Research subindustry, Covance's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Covance's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Medical Diagnostics & Research Industry

For the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry and Healthcare sector, Covance's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Covance's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Covance Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Covance's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = €2.173.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Covance's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

2.173

11.5406

25.08

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(25.08	-	94.00)	/	25.08
	=	-274.80 %

Covance (FRA:CVD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Covance Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Covance's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Covance (FRA:CVD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Covance Inc (FRA:CVD) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.covance.com

Covance, Inc is a Delaware Corporation, founded in 1987. The Company is a drug development services company providing early-stage and late-stage product development services mainly to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. It also provides laboratory testing services to the chemical, agrochemical and food industries. Its two reportable segments are early development services, which include discovery support services, preclinical services and clinical pharmacology services; and late-stage development services, which include central laboratory, Phase II-IV clinical development, and market access services. The Company's preclinical services include toxicology services, pharmaceutical chemistry and related services. The Company's preclinical area has been a source of innovation by introducing new technologies for client access to data such as StudyTracker, electronic animal identification, multimedia study reports and animal and test tube measures of induced cell proliferation or reproduction. The Company's preclinical toxicology services include in vivo toxicology studies, which are studies of the effects of drugs in animals, genetic toxicology studies, which include studies of the effects of drugs on chromosomes, as well as on genetically modified mice and other specialized toxicology services. In its pharmaceutical chemistry services, it determines the metabolic profile and bioavailability of drug candidates. It also provides laboratory testing services to the chemical, agricultural chemical and food industries. The Company offers services to agricultural chemical manufacturers to determine the potential risk to humans, animals and the environment from plant protection products such as pesticides. In its nutritional chemistry services, the Company offers a range of services to the food, nutriceutical and animal feed industries, including nutritional analysis and equivalency, nutritional content fact labels, microbiological and chemical contaminant safety analysis, pesticide screening and stability testing. It provides custom polyclonal and monoclonal antibody services for research purposes and purpose-bred animals for biomedical research. The Company provides optimization and translational services including custom immunology and monoclonal antibody services, metabolism studies and pharmacokinetic screening as well as non-GLP toxicology, in vivo pharmacology, imaging services and biomarker services. The Company's bioanalytical testing services helps determine the appropriate dose and frequency of drug application from late discovery evaluation through Phase III clinical testing on a full-scale, globally integrated basis. The Company provides clinical pharmacology services, including first-in-human trials, of new pharmaceuticals at its seven clinics located throughout the United States and its one clinic in Leeds, United Kingdom. The Company offers reimbursement and healthcare economics consulting services

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