What is Covance Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Covance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Covance's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Diagnostics & Research subindustry, Covance's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Covance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Medical Diagnostics & Research Industry
For the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry and Healthcare sector, Covance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Covance's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Covance Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Covance (FRA:CVD) Business Description
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Covance, Inc is a Delaware Corporation, founded in 1987. The Company is a drug development services company providing early-stage and late-stage product development services mainly to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. It also provides laboratory testing services to the chemical, agrochemical and food industries. Its two reportable segments are early development services, which include discovery support services, preclinical services and clinical pharmacology services; and late-stage development services, which include central laboratory, Phase II-IV clinical development, and market access services. The Company's preclinical services include toxicology services, pharmaceutical chemistry and related services. The Company's preclinical area has been a source of innovation by introducing new technologies for client access to data such as StudyTracker, electronic animal identification, multimedia study reports and animal and test tube measures of induced cell proliferation or reproduction. The Company's preclinical toxicology services include in vivo toxicology studies, which are studies of the effects of drugs in animals, genetic toxicology studies, which include studies of the effects of drugs on chromosomes, as well as on genetically modified mice and other specialized toxicology services. In its pharmaceutical chemistry services, it determines the metabolic profile and bioavailability of drug candidates. It also provides laboratory testing services to the chemical, agricultural chemical and food industries. The Company offers services to agricultural chemical manufacturers to determine the potential risk to humans, animals and the environment from plant protection products such as pesticides. In its nutritional chemistry services, the Company offers a range of services to the food, nutriceutical and animal feed industries, including nutritional analysis and equivalency, nutritional content fact labels, microbiological and chemical contaminant safety analysis, pesticide screening and stability testing. It provides custom polyclonal and monoclonal antibody services for research purposes and purpose-bred animals for biomedical research. The Company provides optimization and translational services including custom immunology and monoclonal antibody services, metabolism studies and pharmacokinetic screening as well as non-GLP toxicology, in vivo pharmacology, imaging services and biomarker services. The Company's bioanalytical testing services helps determine the appropriate dose and frequency of drug application from late discovery evaluation through Phase III clinical testing on a full-scale, globally integrated basis. The Company provides clinical pharmacology services, including first-in-human trials, of new pharmaceuticals at its seven clinics located throughout the United States and its one clinic in Leeds, United Kingdom. The Company offers reimbursement and healthcare economics consulting services
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