GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » DARA Biosciences Inc (NAS:DARA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

DARA Biosciences (DARA Biosciences) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is DARA Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


DARA Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DARA Biosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DARA Biosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


DARA Biosciences (DARA Biosciences) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
DARA Biosciences Inc was incorporated on June 22, 2002. It is a specialty pharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of oncology treatment and supportive care pharmaceutical products. Through its acquisition of Oncogenerix, Inc., which occurred on January 17, 2012, the Company acquired exclusive U.S. marketing rights to its first commercial proprietary product, Soltamox (oral liquid tamoxifen). The Company's main focus is on the development and commercialization of oncology treatment and supportive care pharmaceutical products: Soltamox, Gemcitabine and other generic sterile injectable cytotoxic products, and Cancer support therapeutics. Soltamox (oral liquid tamoxifen), its first proprietary, FDA approved product, is a drug primarily used to treat breast cancer. Soltamox has been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ('FDA') for the treatment of breast cancer. Soltamox will be the only liquid formulation of tamoxifen available for sale in the United States. Soltamox is used mainly for the chronic treatment of breast cancer or for cancer prevention in certain susceptible breast cancer subgroups. The Company is also focusing on the development and commercialization of generic sterile injectable cytotoxic products. The Company's agreement with Uman Pharma Inc. pursuant to which it received an exclusive license to import, sell, market and distribute Uman's gemcitabine lyophilized powder product in 200mg and 1g dosage sizes in the U.S. Gemcitabine went off patent in 2011 in the U.S. and is prescribed as first-line therapy for ovarian, breast, lung and pancreatic cancers. Currently, the Company has two main drug candidates advancing through clinical development with cleared Investigational New Drug applications from the FDA: KRN5500, a novel, non-narcotic/non-opioid for the treatment of neuropathic pain in patients with cancer; and DB959, a first-in-class drug candidate for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and dyslipidemia. The Company mainly competes with other pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies and other research and academic institutions. The Company's advertising, marketing and distribution of pharmaceutical products in the United States is subject to the regulation of United States Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act.
Executives
David Drutz director, officer: Executive Chairman and CMO 8601 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 160, RALEIGH NC 27615
David L. Tousley officer: CFO 14610 PAWNEE LANE, LEAWOOD KS 66224
Gail Lieberman director 175 EAST 79TH STREET, APT. 4D, NEW YORK NY 10075
Paul John Richardson director 17 COUNTRY OAKS ROAD, LEBANON NJ 08833
Steve Gorlin director 150 GULF SHORE DRIVE, UNIT 601, DESTIN FL 32541
Ann A Rosar officer: Vice President Finance C/O 801 CAPITOLA DRIVE, DURHAM NC 27713
John C Thomas director 8601 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 160, RALEIGH NC 27615
Geert Cauwenbergh director 1 STULTS DRIVE, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536
Kurt M Eichler director C/O SPRING BANK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., STE S-7, MILFORD MA 01757
Hamilton Jordan director
Stuart C Mcwhorter director 113 SEABOARD LANE, FRANKLIN TN 37067
Timothy J Barberich director 40 ELM ST, CONCORD MA 01752
Michael P Duffy officer: SVP, GC and Secretary C/O POINT THERAPEUTICS INC, 125 SUMMER STREET SUITE 1840, BOSTON MA 02110
Richard J Benjamin director 15 WHITE PINE ROAD, NEWTON MA 02464
Larry G Pickering director 26130 MANDEVILLA DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134

DARA Biosciences (DARA Biosciences) Headlines