Cricut (Cricut) Predictability Rank

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What is Cricut Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cricut Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cricut (Cricut) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Cricut Inc (NAS:CRCT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

398:Germany

Address

10855 South River Front Parkway, South Jordan, UT, USA, 84095

Website

https://www.cricut.com

Cricut Inc designs and builds a creativity platform that enables users to turn ideas into professional-looking handmade goods. With its connected machines, design apps and accessories, and materials, the users create everything from personalized birthday cards, mugs, and T-shirts to large-scale interior decorations. It derives revenues from three segments including Connected machines, Subscriptions, and Accessories and materials. It derives maximum revenue from the Accessories and Materials segment through the sales of Cricut EasyPress, hand tools, machine replacement tools and blades, project materials such as vinyl and iron-on, and sales of a la carte digital content purchases, including fonts, images, and projects.

Executives

Abdiel Qualified Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	90 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Jason Makler	director	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Donald B. Olsen	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Ryan Harmer	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Arora Ashish	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Kimball C Shill	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Gregory Rowberry	officer: EVP, Sales	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Len Blackwell	director	10855 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Abdiel Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	90 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Moran Colin T.	10 percent owner	410 PARK AVE, SUITE 930, NEW YORK NY 10022
Abdiel Capital Advisors, Lp	10 percent owner	90 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Abdiel Capital Lp	10 percent owner	C/O ABDIEL CAPITAL ADVISORS, LP, 90 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Martin F Petersen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5152 NORTH EDGEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 375, PROVO UT 84604
Petrus Trust Company, Lta	10 percent owner	3000 TURTLE CREEK BLVD., DALLAS TX 75219
L.p. Hwgaa,	10 percent owner	3000 TURTLE CREEK BLVD, DALLAS TX 75219