Lynas Rare EarthsASX:LYC +4.03%78 Altman Z-Score is 20.18 as of Jun. 24, 2026, which is 339% above its 10-year median of 4.60. GuruFocus rates ASX:LYC with a GF Score™ of 78/100 and a GF Value™ of A$13.70 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 790 Metals & Mining companies, Lynas Rare Earths ranks better than 91.01% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Good Sign:
Altman Z-score of 18.99 is strong.
Lynas Rare Earths has a Altman Z-Score of 20.18, indicating it is in Safe Zones. This implies the Altman Z-Score is strong.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for Lynas Rare Earths's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:LYC'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -1.62 Med: 4.6 Max: 18.99
Current: 18.99
During the past 13 years, Lynas Rare Earths's highest Altman Z-Score was 18.99. The lowest was -1.62. And the median was 4.60.
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
Lynas Rare Earths Altman Z-Score Related Terms
Lynas Rare Earths Altman Z-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Lynas Rare Earths's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, Lynas Rare Earths's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Lynas Rare Earths Altman Z-Score vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Lynas Rare Earths's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Lynas Rare Earths's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
Lynas Rare Earths's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
1.2
*
X1
+
1.4
*
X2
+
3.3
*
X3
+
0.6
*
X4
+
1.0
*
X5
=
1.2
*
0.0944
+
1.4
*
0.0776
+
3.3
*
0.0072
+
0.6
*
32.9084
+
1.0
*
0.1843
=
20.18
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) has a Altman Z-Score of 20.18 as of Jun. 24, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Lynas Rare Earths and its competitors. This is 339% above median its historical median of 4.60. According to the industry distribution chart, Lynas Rare Earths ranks #71 out of 790 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 9%.
Is Lynas Rare Earths' Altman Z-Score too high?
Lynas Rare Earths' current Altman Z-Score of 20.18 is 339% above median its 10-year median of 4.60. The Metals & Mining industry median Altman Z-Score is 3.45. Lynas Rare Earths' value of 20.18 is 485.8% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Lynas Rare Earths ranks #71 out of 790 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Lynas Rare Earths has a GF Score™ of 78/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Lynas Rare Earths' Altman Z-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, Lynas Rare Earths ranks #71 out of 790 companies for Altman Z-Score. This places Lynas Rare Earths in the top 9% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 3.45. Lynas Rare Earths' value of 20.18 is 485.8% above this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 4.60 vs. the industry median of 3.45, Lynas Rare Earths has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for a Metals & Mining company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Metals & Mining companies is 3.45, based on 790 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Lynas Rare Earths's current Altman Z-Score of 20.18 is 485.8% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Lynas Rare Earths and its competitors. For the Metals & Mining industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 3.45 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Lynas Rare Earths's current Altman Z-Score is 20.18, which is 339% above median its own 10-year median of 4.60. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Lynas Rare Earths stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$13.70, compared to a current price of A$19.34 — trading 41.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 20.18, which is 339% above median its 10-year median of 4.60 and 485.8% above the Metals & Mining industry median of 3.45. Lynas Rare Earths' overall GF Score™ is 78/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC), the current Altman Z-Score is 20.18 as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Lynas Rare Earths stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$19.34 is trading 41.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$13.70.
GuruFocus considers Lynas Rare Earths to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:LYC:
Altman Z-Score: 20.18 (339% above median its 10-year median of 4.60)
GF Value™: A$13.70 vs. price of A$19.34 (41.2% above fair value)
Industry Position: 485.8% above the Metals & Mining median (#71 of 790)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:LYC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Lynas is the largest rare-earth producer outside China. It owns the high-grade Mount Weld deposit in Western Australia and rare-earth processing facilities in Kalgoorlie and Malaysia. We estimate that Mount Weld is the world's lowest-cost producer of separated neodymium and praseodymium, light rare-earth materials, which are sold to customers in the form of neodymium-praseodymium oxide with a mine life exceeding 20 years. As of December 2025, Lynas is also the only producer of separated heavy rare-earth dysprosium and terbium outside China. The company is further expanding NdPr capacity while diversifying into producing additional separated rare-earth materials, including samarium. It also intends to move downstream into rare-earth metal and magnet production.
78GF Score
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