Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Risk Assessment


ASX:LYC Lynas Rare Earths Ltd ASX:LYC
78 GF Score
Price A$19.34
GF Value A$13.70
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is Lynas Rare Earths Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of Lynas Rare Earths is: Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding.

Lynas Rare Earths  (ASX:LYC) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

Lynas Rare Earths Risk Assessment Related Terms

Lynas Rare Earths Risk Assessment Competitor Comparison

For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, Lynas Rare Earths's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Lynas Rare Earths Risk Assessment vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Lynas Rare Earths's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Lynas Rare Earths's Risk Assessment falls into.


ASX:LYC
78GF Score
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd ASX:LYC
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Is Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Lynas Rare Earths stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of A$19.34 is trading 41.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$13.70. GuruFocus considers Lynas Rare Earths to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for ASX:LYC:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: A$13.70 vs. price of A$19.34 (41.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 78/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:LYC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Lynas Rare Earths Business Description

Address 1 Howard Street, Level 4, Perth, WA, AUS, 6000
Lynas is the largest rare-earth producer outside China. It owns the high-grade Mount Weld deposit in Western Australia and rare-earth processing facilities in Kalgoorlie and Malaysia. We estimate that Mount Weld is the world's lowest-cost producer of separated neodymium and praseodymium, light rare-earth materials, which are sold to customers in the form of neodymium-praseodymium oxide with a mine life exceeding 20 years. As of December 2025, Lynas is also the only producer of separated heavy rare-earth dysprosium and terbium outside China. The company is further expanding NdPr capacity while diversifying into producing additional separated rare-earth materials, including samarium. It also intends to move downstream into rare-earth metal and magnet production.
78GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ASX:LYC

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

A$19.34
Price
A$13.70
GF Value