Virtus Global Multi-Sector (Virtus Global Multi-Sector) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2012. Start your Free Trial

What is Virtus Global Multi-Sector Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Virtus Global Multi-Sector Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Virtus Global Multi-Sector Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Virtus Global Multi-Sector's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Virtus Global Multi-Sector (Virtus Global Multi-Sector) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Virtus Global Multi-Sector Inc (NYSE:VGI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

101 Munson Street, Greenfield, MA, USA, 01301-9683

Website

https://www.virtus.com

Virtus Global Multi-Sector Inc is a United States-based diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to maximize current income while preserving capital. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by capitalizing on opportunities across undervalued areas of the global bond markets.

Executives

Mcdaniel Connie D	director	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103
Sarah E Cogan	director	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
F Ford Drummond	director	100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Deborah A Decotis	director	1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Richard W Smirl	officer: EVP	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06103
R Keith Walton	director	100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103
John R Mallin	director	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103
Sidney E Harris	director	C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., ONE FINANCIAL PLAZA, 26TH FL., HARTFORD CT 06103
Geraldine M Mcnamara	director	150 EAST 44TH ST, APT 35G, NEW YORK NY 10017
Donald C Burke	director	C/O BLACKROCK FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian T Zino	director	100 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Rogers James B Jr	director	14 WESLEY STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
James M Oates	director	C/O INVESTORS FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP, 200 CLARENDON ST, BOSTON MA 02116
Thomas F. Mann	director	125 EAST ELM STREET, SUITE 200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Benjamin Caron	other: Officer of the Sub-Adviser	C/O NEWFLEET ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, 100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103