Scripps Networks Interactive (Scripps Networks Interactive) Predictability Rank

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What is Scripps Networks Interactive Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Scripps Networks Interactive Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Scripps Networks Interactive (Scripps Networks Interactive) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Scripps Networks Interactive Inc (NAS:SNI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.scrippsnetworksinteractive.com

Scripps is a vertically integrated content company that operates six domestic cable channels and owns 98% of the content that airs on its channels. Spun off from E.W. Scripps in 2008, Scripps' three largest networks (Food Network, HGTV, and Travel Channel) reach over 90 million households subscribing to basic cable in the U.S. While two (HGTV and Food Network) networks regularly rank within the top 25 networks in the U.S., Scripps has very little exposure to international markets with only 3% of revenue earned from outside the U.S.

Executives

Mitchell Jenny Sue Scripps	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Careen Cardin	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT. MITCHELL KY 41017
Eva Scripps Attal	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT. MITCHELL KY 41017
Savannah Brickner	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Scripps William A. Jr.	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Wesley W. Scripps	director, 10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Samantha J. Brickner	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Estate Of Robert P. Scripps, Jr.	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT. MITCHELL KY 41017
Nathaniel W Heidt	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Austin S Heidt	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Heidt Robert S Iii	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE., SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Crystal Vasquez Lozano	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Jessica L. Scripps	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
Dubuc Cody	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT MITCHELL KY 41017
J. Sebastian Scripps	10 percent owner	C/O MIRAMAR SERVICES, INC., 250 GRANDVIEW AVE, SUITE 400, FT. MITCHELL KY 41017