Reynolds American (Reynolds American) Predictability Rank

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What is Reynolds American Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Reynolds American Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Reynolds American (Reynolds American) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Reynolds American Inc (NYSE:RAI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.reynoldsamerican.com

Reynolds American controls roughly one third of the U.S. cigarette market and is the second-largest domestic cigarette manufacturer behind Altria. Its brands include Camel, Pall Mall, and Newport. Reynolds also owns the Grizzly and Kodiak smokeless tobacco brands. Another subsidiary, Santa Fe Natural Tobacco, manufactures superpremium Natural American Spirit cigarettes. In 2013, Reynolds entered the electronic cigarette market with its Vuse brand, which captured a significant share of this small but growing market.

Executives

John J Zillmer	director	ARAMARK CORP, 1101 MARKET ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19107
Debra Ann Crew	officer: President and CEO	STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC., 1000 STANLEY DRIVE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053
Ronald S Rolfe	director	825 8TH AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Nowell Lionel L Iii	director	401 NORTH MAIN STREET, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
Holly K Koeppel	director	401 NORTH MAIN STREET, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
Susan M. Cameron	director	C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORP, PO BOX 2353, ORLANDO FL 32802-2353
Murray S Kessler	director	714 GREEN VALLEY ROAD, GREENSBORO NC 27408
Nana Mensah	director	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Thomas C Wajnert	director	401 NORTH MAIN STREET, WINSTON SALEM NC 27102
Richard E Thornburgh	director	401 N. MAIN STREET, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27101
Nicholas V Scheele	director	FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Betsy S Atkins	director
Joseph P Viviano	director	4351 GULF SHORE BLVD. N, 17N LERIVAGE, NAPLES FL 34103
Monteiro De Castro Antonio	director	BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO - GLOBE HOUSE, 4 TEMPLE PLACE, LONDON X0 WC2R2PG
Chain John T Jr	director	401 N. MAIN ST., C/O RJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO HOLDINGS, WINSTON SALEM NC 27102