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Oneida Financial (Oneida Financial) Predictability Rank


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What is Oneida Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Oneida Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Oneida Financial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Oneida Financial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Oneida Financial (Oneida Financial) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Oneida Financial Corp is a Maryland corporation. The Company is the holding Company of The Oneida Savings Bank, a New York-chartered savings bank. Oneida Savings Bank's deposits are insured by the FDIC up to the maximum amount permitted by law. The Bank is a community bank engaged in the business of accepting deposits from customers through its main office and 10 full service branch offices and using those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings to make one-to-four family residential and commercial real estate loans, consumer loans and commercial business loans and to invest in mortgage-backed and other securities. Municipal deposit banking services are provided through a limited purpose commercial bank subsidiary, The State Bank of Chittenango. The Bank also sells insurance and other commercial services and products, provides employee benefit services and offers risk management services to help mitigate and prevent work related injuries through Bailey & Haskell Associates, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary, and provides financial and investment advisory services through Oneida Wealth Management Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary. Its deposit accounts consist of savings, interest-bearing demand accounts, non-interest-bearing checking accounts, money market accounts and certificates of deposit. It also offers IRAs and other qualified plan accounts. Its primary lending area is Madison and Oneida Counties in New York and the surrounding counties and its deposit customers reside in the same area. It competes with commercial banks, savings institutions, mortgage banking firms, credit unions, finance companies, mutual funds, insurance companies, and brokerage and investment banking firms operating locally and elsewhere. The Company subject to extensive regulation, supervision and examination by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the New York State Department of Financial Services and the Federal Reserve Board.
Executives
R Kallet Michael director, officer: Chairman and CEO 182 MAIN STREET, ONEIDA NY 13421
Eric Stickels director, officer: President and COO 182 MAIN STREET, ONEIDA NY 13421

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