MetroCity Bankshares (MetroCity Bankshares) Predictability Rank

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What is MetroCity Bankshares Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MetroCity Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MetroCity Bankshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MetroCity Bankshares (MetroCity Bankshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » MetroCity Bankshares Inc (NAS:MCBS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5114 Buford Highway, Doraville, GA, USA, 30340

Website

https://www.metrocitybank.com

MetroCity Bankshares Inc is a holding company of its subsidiary Metro City Bank. It provides commercial banking services such as consumer and commercial checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposits, commercial and consumer loans, money transfers and a variety of other banking services. The banks generate revenue from interest income. Its customers include small business owners, professionals, consumers, and real estate developers.

Executives

Nack Y Paek	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
William J. Hungeling	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Sam Sang-koo Shim	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Ajit A. Patel	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Howard Hwasaeng Kim	director, officer: Executive Vice President	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Farid Tan	director, officer: President	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Feiying Lu	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Don Leung	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Frank S. Rhee	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Young K. Park	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Francis Lai	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Frank Glover	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Lucas Stewart	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
William M. Hungeling	director	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340
Samuel Benton Gunter	officer: Executive VP and CAO	C/O METROCITY BANKSHARES, INC., 5114 BUFORD HIGHWAY, DORAVILLE GA 30340