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Star Plus Legend Holdings (HKSE:06683) Predictability Rank


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What is Star Plus Legend Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Star Plus Legend Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Star Plus Legend Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Star Plus Legend Holdings (HKSE:06683) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Star Plus Legend Holdings Ltd (HKSE:06683) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01475 HKSE:01112 HKSE:01458 HKSE:01717 HKSE:06868 HKSE:01610 HKSE:06836 HKSE:00345 HKSE:00411 HKSE:02147 XSWX:NESN KHC XPAR:BN GIS SHSE:603288 NSE:NESTLEIND SZSE:300999 SHSE:600887 TSE:2802 LSE:ABF
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
68 Jinjie Road, 2/F, Block 1, Dream Star Garden, Huaqiao Town, Kunshan, CHN
Website
https://www.splegend.com
Star Plus Legend Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. The company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in new retail business and IP creation and operation business in the People's Republic of China. In the new retail business, the company primarily develops and sells health management products and skincare products. In the IP creation and operation business, the company creates unique celebrity IPs by providing planning and other project management services to media content, acting as an event planning service provider and investor in large-scale concerts featuring celebrities and other events, together with designing and licensing proprietary celebrity IPs. The majority of revenue is derived from the new retail business.
Executives
Zhang Yuan 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lai Kwok Fai Franki 2101 Beneficial owner
Chen Chung 2501 Other
Ma Hsin-ting 2501 Other
Yang Chun-jung 2501 Other
Yeh Hui-mei 2501 Other
Harmony Culture Investment Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Legend Key International Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Max One Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Loo See Yuen 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ho Chi Sing 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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