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China Education Group Holdings (HKSE:00839) Predictability Rank


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What is China Education Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Education Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Education Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Education Group Holdings (HKSE:00839) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » China Education Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00839) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02469 HKSE:01969 HKSE:00667 HKSE:09636 HKSE:01773 HKSE:01890 HKSE:01765 HKSE:02001 HKSE:00032 HKSE:00382 AIU EDU TAL HKSE:01797 ASX:IEL LOPE SZSE:002607 GHC COUR LRN
Traded in Other Exchanges
CEGHF:USA C3W:Germany
Address
18 Harbour Road, Suite 6703–04, 67th Floor, Central Plaza, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.chinaeducation.hk
China Education Group Holdings Ltd is a leading ultra-large-scale private education group in China with 30 years of experience in higher education operations. CEG's schools offer both higher vocational education and secondary vocational education. The school network spans domestic China and overseas. CEG also offers continuing education to full-time working adults. The group's total enrolled full-time students in China expanded more than 3 times over the last six years to about 248,000 as of August 2023. The rapid growth is primarily attributable to school acquisitions. CEG currently operates 14 schools, up from only 3 in 2017.
Executives
Blue Sky Education International Limited 2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
White Clouds Education International Limited 2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Cantrust (far East) Limited 2301 Trustee
Passionate Jade Holding Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shimmery Diamond Holding Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xie Ketao 2501 Other
Yu Guo 2501 Other
Yu Kai 2501 Other

China Education Group Holdings (HKSE:00839) Headlines

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