Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
AGL Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AGL Resources's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
AGL Resources (AGL Resources) Business Description
AGL Resources Inc was incorporated on November 27, 1995 under the laws of the State of Georgia. It is an energy services holding company. The Company is engaged in the distribution of natural gas in seven states; Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, Florida, Tennessee and Maryland through its seven natural gas distribution utilities. The Company's business segments are Distribution Operations, Retail Operations, Wholesale Services and Midstream Operations. The distribution operations segment includes seven natural gas local distribution utilities with a focus of providing safe and reliable delivery of natural gas. The retail operations segment serves natural gas commodity customers and service contracts. The wholesale services segment is engaged in asset management and optimization, storage, transportation, producer and peaking services and wholesale marketing of natural gas across the U.S. and Canada. Wholesale services utilizes a portfolio of natural gas storage assets, contracted supply from all of the main producing regions, as well as contracted storage and transportation capacity to provide these services to its customers. The midstream operations segment includes a number of businesses that are related and complementary to its primary business. The Company competes with electric utilities and fuel oil and propane providers serving the residential, commercial and industrial markets and natural gas facilities. The Company's business is subject to substantial regulation by federal, state and local regulatory authorities.
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