Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
AGL Resources's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for AGL Resources's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
GAS's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Utilities - Regulated industry.
Industry Median: 0.89 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
AGL Resources Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for AGL Resources's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Competitive Comparison of AGL Resources's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
For the Utilities - Regulated Gas subindustry, AGL Resources's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
AGL Resources's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Utilities - Regulated Industry
For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, AGL Resources's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where AGL Resources's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
AGL Resources's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past
3 years was 0.00%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $2.840. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
AGL Resources's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
AGL Resources Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of AGL Resources's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
AGL Resources (AGL Resources) Business Description
AGL Resources Inc was incorporated on November 27, 1995 under the laws of the State of Georgia. It is an energy services holding company. The Company is engaged in the distribution of natural gas in seven states; Illinois, Georgia, Virginia, New Jersey, Florida, Tennessee and Maryland through its seven natural gas distribution utilities. The Company's business segments are Distribution Operations, Retail Operations, Wholesale Services and Midstream Operations. The distribution operations segment includes seven natural gas local distribution utilities with a focus of providing safe and reliable delivery of natural gas. The retail operations segment serves natural gas commodity customers and service contracts. The wholesale services segment is engaged in asset management and optimization, storage, transportation, producer and peaking services and wholesale marketing of natural gas across the U.S. and Canada. Wholesale services utilizes a portfolio of natural gas storage assets, contracted supply from all of the main producing regions, as well as contracted storage and transportation capacity to provide these services to its customers. The midstream operations segment includes a number of businesses that are related and complementary to its primary business. The Company competes with electric utilities and fuel oil and propane providers serving the residential, commercial and industrial markets and natural gas facilities. The Company's business is subject to substantial regulation by federal, state and local regulatory authorities.
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