Citizens Financial Services (Citizens Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Citizens Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citizens Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Citizens Financial Services (Citizens Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citizens Financial Services Inc (NAS:CZFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

15 South Main Street, Mansfield, PA, USA, 16933

Website

https://www.firstcitizensbank.com

Citizens Financial Services Inc is a Pennsylvania-chartered bank and trust company. The company through its banking subsidiary provides banking activities and services for individual, business, governmental and institutional customers. Its activities and services principally include checking, savings, and time deposit accounts; residential, commercial and agricultural real estate, commercial and industrial, state and political subdivision and consumer loans; and a variety of other specialized financial services. The Trust and Investment division of the Bank offers a full range of client investment, estate, mineral management and retirement services.

Executives

R Joseph Landy	director	741 SOUTH MAIN STREET, ATHENS PA 18810
Stephen J Guillaume	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	POST OFFICE BOX 43, LIBERTY PA 16930
Robert Joseph Marino	director	407 33RD STREET S, BRIGANTINE NJ 08203
Richards David Z Jr	director, officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	209 TWIGS LANE, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801
Rinaldo A Depaola	director	50 REEL STREET, SAYRE PA 18840
John D Behm	other: Subsidiary Director	2114 BLUE STEM DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938-2311
Leeann Gephart	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	2260 HEIM HILL ROAD, MONTOURSVILLE PA 17754
Painter John P Ii	director	571 HOWLAND HILL ROAD, WESTFIELD PA 16950
Thomas E. Freeman	director	831 KELLYTOWN ROAD, MANSFIELD PA 16933
Janie M Hilifger	director	830 CANADA ROAD, COVINGTON PA 16917
Graham Roger C Jr	director	1281 BRAGUE ROAD, CANTON PA 17724
Christopher W Kunes	director	3896 PENNS VALLEY ROAD, SPRING MILLS PA 16875
Dwight D Rohrer	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	2385 JUNCTION ROAD, MANHEIM PA 17545
Marina K Smalanskas	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	1445 ROCKY WAY, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Sean P Mckinney	officer: VICE PRESIDENT	11 TOWER LANE, GRANTVILLE PA 17028