GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Citizens Financial Services Inc (NAS:CZFS) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Citizens Financial Services (Citizens Financial Services) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.19% (As of Jun. 07, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Citizens Financial Services Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.19%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Citizens Financial Services Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-6.27

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.19%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Citizens Financial Services  (NAS:CZFS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Citizens Financial Services Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Citizens Financial Services's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Citizens Financial Services (Citizens Financial Services) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
15 South Main Street, Mansfield, PA, USA, 16933
Citizens Financial Services Inc is a Pennsylvania-chartered bank and trust company. The company through its banking subsidiary provides banking activities and services for individual, business, governmental and institutional customers. Its activities and services principally include checking, savings, and time deposit accounts; residential, commercial and agricultural real estate, commercial and industrial, state and political subdivision and consumer loans; and a variety of other specialized financial services. The Trust and Investment division of the Bank offers a full range of client investment, estate, mineral management and retirement services.
Executives
R Joseph Landy director 741 SOUTH MAIN STREET, ATHENS PA 18810
Stephen J Guillaume officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT POST OFFICE BOX 43, LIBERTY PA 16930
Robert Joseph Marino director 407 33RD STREET S, BRIGANTINE NJ 08203
Richards David Z Jr director, officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT 209 TWIGS LANE, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801
Rinaldo A Depaola director 50 REEL STREET, SAYRE PA 18840
John D Behm other: Subsidiary Director 2114 BLUE STEM DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938-2311
Leeann Gephart officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT 2260 HEIM HILL ROAD, MONTOURSVILLE PA 17754
Painter John P Ii director 571 HOWLAND HILL ROAD, WESTFIELD PA 16950
Thomas E. Freeman director 831 KELLYTOWN ROAD, MANSFIELD PA 16933
Janie M Hilifger director 830 CANADA ROAD, COVINGTON PA 16917
Graham Roger C Jr director 1281 BRAGUE ROAD, CANTON PA 17724
Christopher W Kunes director 3896 PENNS VALLEY ROAD, SPRING MILLS PA 16875
Dwight D Rohrer officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT 2385 JUNCTION ROAD, MANHEIM PA 17545
Marina K Smalanskas officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT 1445 ROCKY WAY, MECHANICSBURG PA 17055
Sean P Mckinney officer: VICE PRESIDENT 11 TOWER LANE, GRANTVILLE PA 17028