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Carolina Bank Holdings (Carolina Bank Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Carolina Bank Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Carolina Bank Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Carolina Bank Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Carolina Bank Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Carolina Bank Holdings (Carolina Bank Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Carolina Bank Holdings Inc (NAS:CLBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FCCO FCCY FRAF QNBC SLCT MVBF CWBB STND AUBN DNBF BERK FSBW ENFC FRBA SBBX FNRN DCBF FNCB CIZN RBPAA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.carolinabank.com
Carolina Bank Holdings Inc was incorporated under the laws of the State of North Carolina on August 16, 2000. It is a bank holding company for Carolina Bank. The Company is engaged in a general banking business in Guilford, Alamance, Randolph and Forsyth Counties, North Carolina. Its operations are mainly commercially oriented and directed to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses located in its market area and its deposits and loans are derived mainly from customers in its geographic market. The Company is considered to have three principal business segments Commercial/Retail Bank, the Mortgage Division, and the Holding Company. The mortgage division originates residential mortgage loans through other banks and brokers in addition to retail loan officers, who are located in five loan production offices and in five of its banking offices, and sells the loans to investors. The Company's primary service area consists of the Cities of Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Winston-Salem and Asheboro, North Carolina and the areas immediately surrounding Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Winston-Salem and Asheboro, all of which are located in Guilford, Alamance, Forsyth and Randolph Counties, North Carolina. Residential mortgage loan production offices are located in Burlington, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Raleigh and Sanford, NC. The Company competes directly for deposits in its primary service area with other commercial banks, savings banks, credit unions, agencies issuing United States government securities and all other organizations and institutions engaged in money market transactions, in lending activities, the bank competes with all other financial institutions. The Company is subject to supervision, examination and regulation by the North Carolina Office of the Commissioner of Banks ("Commissioner") and the FDIC and to North Carolina and federal statutory and regulatory provisions governing such matters as capital standards, mergers, subsidiary investments and establishment of branch offices.
Executives
Abby Jill Donnelly director 3503 SMOKETREE DRIVE, GREENSBORO NC 27410
Donald H Allred director 1246 WEST LAKE DRIVE, ASHEBORO NC 27205-2549