What is Carolina Bank Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Carolina Bank Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Carolina Bank Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Carolina Bank Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Carolina Bank Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Carolina Bank Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Carolina Bank Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Carolina Bank Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 50.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Carolina Bank Holdings (Carolina Bank Holdings) Business Description
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Carolina Bank Holdings Inc was incorporated under the laws of the State of North Carolina on August 16, 2000. It is a bank holding company for Carolina Bank. The Company is engaged in a general banking business in Guilford, Alamance, Randolph and Forsyth Counties, North Carolina. Its operations are mainly commercially oriented and directed to individuals and small to medium-sized businesses located in its market area and its deposits and loans are derived mainly from customers in its geographic market. The Company is considered to have three principal business segments Commercial/Retail Bank, the Mortgage Division, and the Holding Company. The mortgage division originates residential mortgage loans through other banks and brokers in addition to retail loan officers, who are located in five loan production offices and in five of its banking offices, and sells the loans to investors. The Company's primary service area consists of the Cities of Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Winston-Salem and Asheboro, North Carolina and the areas immediately surrounding Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Winston-Salem and Asheboro, all of which are located in Guilford, Alamance, Forsyth and Randolph Counties, North Carolina. Residential mortgage loan production offices are located in Burlington, Chapel Hill, Hillsborough, Raleigh and Sanford, NC. The Company competes directly for deposits in its primary service area with other commercial banks, savings banks, credit unions, agencies issuing United States government securities and all other organizations and institutions engaged in money market transactions, in lending activities, the bank competes with all other financial institutions. The Company is subject to supervision, examination and regulation by the North Carolina Office of the Commissioner of Banks ("Commissioner") and the FDIC and to North Carolina and federal statutory and regulatory provisions governing such matters as capital standards, mergers, subsidiary investments and establishment of branch offices.
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