Cardinal Financial (Cardinal Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Cardinal Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cardinal Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cardinal Financial (Cardinal Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Cardinal Financial Corp (NAS:CFNL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cardinalbank.com

Cardinal Financial Corporation was incorporated under the laws of Virginia as a financial holding Company on June, 25, 2003. The Company's activities consist of investments in its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The main operating subsidiary of the company is Cardinal Bank. Cardinal Bank offers a range of traditional bank loan and deposit products and services to both its commercial and retail customers. The Company's commercial relationship managers attract small and medium sized businesses as well as government contractors, commercial real estate developers and builders and professionals, such as physicians, accountants and attorneys. The Company operates in three business segments, commercial banking, mortgage banking and wealth management and trust services. The commercial banking segment includes both commercial and consumer lending and provides customers such products as commercial loans, real estate loans, and other business financing and consumer loans. In addition, this segment provides customers with several choices of deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, savings accounts and certificates of deposit. The mortgage banking segment engages mainly in the origination and acquisition of residential mortgages for sale into the secondary market on a efforts basis. The wealth management and trust services segment provides investment and financial advisory services to businesses and individuals, including financial planning, retirement/estate planning, trust, estates, custody, investment management, escrows, and retirement plans. The Company competes as a financial intermediary with other commercial banks, savings and loan associations, savings banks, credit unions, mortgage banking firms, consumer finance companies, securities brokerage firms, insurance companies, mutual fund groups and other types of financial institutions. The Bank is subject to regulation, supervision and examination by the Bureau of Financial Institutions of the Virginia State Corporation Commission. The Bank and its also are subject to regulation, supervision and examination by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

Executives

Mark A Wendel	officer: EVP/Chief Financial Officer	C/O FIRST COMMUNITY BANCSHARES, P.O. BOX 989, BLUEFIELD VA 24605-0989
Bernard H Clineburg	director, officer: Executive Chairman	CARDINAL FINANCIAL CORP, 8270 GREENSBORO DRIVE STE 500, MCLEAN VA 22102
Barbara B Lang	director	8270 GREENSBORO DRIVE, SUITE 500, MCLEAN VA 22102
Steven M Wiltse	director	11325 RANDOM HILLS RD, STE 240, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Alan G Merten	director	11020 POPES HEAD ROAD, FAIRFAX VA 22030
Kendal E Carson	officer: President	514 MARKET STREET, PARKERSBURG WV 26101
Cynthia A Cole	officer: EVP/Marketing Director	8270 GREENSBORO DRIVE, SUITE 500, MCLEAN VA 22102