What is Business First Bancshares Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Business First Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Business First Bancshares (Business First Bancshares) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
500 Laurel Street, Suite 101, Baton Rouge, LA, USA, 70801
Business First Bancshares Inc is a United States-based bank holding company. The company's services include personal and commercial banking, treasury management, and wealth solutions. It provides a range of financial services to small-to-midsized businesses and professionals. The company generates most of its revenues from interest income on loans, customer service and loan fees, and interest income from securities.
Executives
| Mark P. Folse |
director, officer: EVP - b1BANK |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Rick D. Day |
director |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Jesse Jackson |
officer: EVP & Pres., Fin. Institutions |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Kathryn Manning |
officer: Chief Risk Officer |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| John P. Ducrest |
director |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Greg Robertson |
officer: CFO and Treasurer |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Arthur Price |
director |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Steven Gerard White |
director |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Joseph Vernon Johnson |
director |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Kenneth W. Smith |
director |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Andrew D. Mclindon |
director |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Mccollister Rolfe H. Jr. |
director |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Keith Mansfield |
officer: EVP&COO of Business First Bank |
500 LAUREL AVENUE, SUITE 100, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Carol Calkins |
director |
500 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801 |
| Smith Edgar R. Iii |
director |
400 EAST THOMAS STREET, HAMMOND LA 70401 |
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