What is Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3344 Peachtree Road Northeast, Suite 1725, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30326
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc is a real estate finance company focused on acquiring and investing in the first lien non-QM loans and other mortgage-related assets in the U.S. mortgage market. Its objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for its stockholders, through cash distributions and capital appreciation, across interest rates and credit cycles.
Executives
| Brandon Filson |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
| Noelle Savarese |
director |
3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
| Jonathan Morgan |
director |
15 BEACH DRIVE, DARIEN CT 06820 |
| Sreeniwas Prabhu |
officer: CEO & President |
ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Davidson Kempner Capital Management Lp |
10 percent owner |
520 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| W D Minami |
director |
C/O NORTHSTAR REALTY FINANCE CORP., 399 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Christine Jurinich |
director |
100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809 |
| Nancy R Davis |
director |
3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
| Xylem Finance Llc |
10 percent owner |
520 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Nhtv Atlanta Holdings Lp |
10 percent owner |
1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Ms Tactical Value Fund Gp Inc. |
10 percent owner |
1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Ms Tactical Value Fund Gp Lp |
10 percent owner |
1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Project Atlanta Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Landon Parsons |
director |
3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
| Edward Mclean Cummings |
director, 10 percent owner |
3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
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