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Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.07% (As of May. 24, 2024)


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What is Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the REIT - Mortgage subindustry, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Angel Oak Mortgage REIT's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.33

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Angel Oak Mortgage REIT  (NYSE:AOMR) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Angel Oak Mortgage REIT (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3344 Peachtree Road Northeast, Suite 1725, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30326
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc is a real estate finance company focused on acquiring and investing in the first lien non-QM loans and other mortgage-related assets in the U.S. mortgage market. Its objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for its stockholders, through cash distributions and capital appreciation, across interest rates and credit cycles.
Executives
Brandon Filson officer: CFO & Treasurer 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Noelle Savarese director 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Jonathan Morgan director 15 BEACH DRIVE, DARIEN CT 06820
Sreeniwas Prabhu officer: CEO & President ANGEL OAK CAPITAL ADVISORS, 3060 PEACHTREE ROAD NW, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30305
Davidson Kempner Capital Management Lp 10 percent owner 520 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
W D Minami director C/O NORTHSTAR REALTY FINANCE CORP., 399 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christine Jurinich director 100 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Nancy R Davis director 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Xylem Finance Llc 10 percent owner 520 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nhtv Atlanta Holdings Lp 10 percent owner 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ms Tactical Value Fund Gp Inc. 10 percent owner 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ms Tactical Value Fund Gp Lp 10 percent owner 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Project Atlanta Gp Llc 10 percent owner 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Landon Parsons director 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326
Edward Mclean Cummings director, 10 percent owner 3344 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1725, ATLANTA GA 30326