National Vision Holdings (National Vision Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.12% (As of May. 23, 2024)

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What is National Vision Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, National Vision Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.12%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of National Vision Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, National Vision Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

National Vision Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, National Vision Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where National Vision Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

National Vision Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-6.75

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.12%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

National Vision Holdings (NAS:EYE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

National Vision Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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National Vision Holdings (National Vision Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » National Vision Holdings Inc (NAS:EYE) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7NV:Germany

Address

2435 Commerce Avenue, Building 2200, Duluth, GA, USA, 30096

Website

https://www.nationalvision.com

National Vision Holdings Inc is an optical retailer in the U.S. Its product portfolio includes eyeglasses and sunglasses, contact lenses, accessories, and other products. The company has two operating segments; Owned and Host segment includes company-owned brands America's Best and Eyeglass World, In America's Best stores, vision care services are provided by optometrists or by independent professional corporations and Host operating consist of Military and Fred Meyer which provide eye exams by independent optometrists, and the Legacy segment manages the operations of, and supplies inventory and lab processing services to Legacy retail Vision Centers. It earns a majority of its revenue from the Owned and Host segment.

Executives

D Randolph Peeler	director, 10 percent owner	CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC, 25 GREENS HILL LANE PO BOX 866, RUTLAND VT 05701
Thomas V Taylor	director	2233 LAKE PARK DRIVE, STE. 400, SMYRNA GA 30080
Ravi Acharya	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Virginia A Hepner	director	415 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD, SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30305
L Reade Fahs	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer
Patrick R. Moore	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVENUE, BLDG. 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Jared Brandman	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVENUE BLDG. 2200, DULUTH GA 30096-4980
David M Tehle	director	100 MISSION RIDGE, GOODLETTSVILLE TN 37072
Joseph Vandette	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Melissa Rasmussen	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVENUE BLDG 2200, DULUTH GA 30095
Roger F. Francis	officer: SVP, Chief Stores Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Jose Armario	director	MCDONALD'S CORPORATION, 2915 JORIE BOULEVARD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Susan S Johnson	director	303 PEACHTREE STREET, NE, ATLANTA GA 30308
Naomi Kelman	director	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096
Joan Blackwood	officer: SVP, Chief Marketing Officer	C/O NATIONAL VISION HOLDINGS, INC., 2435 COMMERCE AVE., BUILDING 2200, DULUTH GA 30096