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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ascent Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, Ascent Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, Ascent Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ascent Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Ascent Capital Group (OTCPK:ASCMA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ascent Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Thomas Patrick Mcmillin | director | C/O WIDEOPENWEST, INC., 7887 EAST BELLEVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 1000, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111 |
John C Malone | 10 percent owner | 12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
Jeffery R Gardner | director, officer: Executive Vice President | ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202 |
William R Fitzgerald | director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman | 2431 EAST 61ST STREET STE 800, TULSA OK 74136 |
Charles Y Tanabe | director | 123 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112 |
Brigade Capital Management, Lp | 10 percent owner | 399 PARK AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Brigade Capital Management Gp, Llc | 10 percent owner | 399 PARK AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Morgan Donald E Iii | 10 percent owner | C/O BRIGADE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 717 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1301, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Brigade Leveraged Capital Structures Fund Ltd. | 10 percent owner | ONE NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9005 |
Ahmet H Okumus | 10 percent owner | C/O OKUMUS FUND MANAGEMENT LTD., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Okumus Fund Management Ltd. | 10 percent owner | 767 THIRD AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
Okumus Opportunistic Value Fund Ltd. | 10 percent owner | CRAIGMUIR CHAMBERS, SUITE 71, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 VG 1110 |
Carl E Vogel | director | C/O SIRIUS XM RADIO INC., 1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020 |
Brian Deevy | director | C/O TICKETMASTER, 8800 WEST SUNSET BLVD., WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069 |
Richard Walker | officer: Executive Vice President | C/O SERVICESOURCE INTERNATIONAL, INC., 717 17TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, DENVER CO 80202 |
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