Linde (LIN) Predictability Rank

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What is Linde Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Linde Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Linde (LIN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Linde PLC (NAS:LIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LIN:Germany LINI:Austria

Address

10 Riverview Drive, Danbury, CT, USA, 06810

Website

https://www.linde.com

Linde is the largest industrial gas supplier in the world, with operations in over 100 countries. The firm's main products are atmospheric gases (including oxygen, nitrogen, and argon) and process gases (including hydrogen, carbon dioxide, and helium), as well as equipment used in industrial gas production. Linde serves a wide variety of end markets, including chemicals, manufacturing, healthcare, and steelmaking. Linde generated approximately $33 billion in revenue and $5.4 billion in GAAP operating profit in 2022.

Executives

Sean Durbin	officer: Executive VP, EMEA	C/O LINDE PLC, THE PRIESTLEY CENTRE 10 PRIESTLEY ROAD, GUILDFORD, SURREY X0 GU2 XY7
Guillermo Bichara	officer: Senior VP& Chief Legal Officer	39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810-5113
Oliver Pfann	officer: Senior Vice President, EMEA	FORGE, 43 CHURCH STREET WEST, WOKING SURREY X0 GU216HT
Stephen F Angel	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810-5113
Hugh Grant	director	C/O PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., 1 PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Kelcey E Hoyt	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810-5113
David P Strauss	officer: Senior VP & Chief HR Officer	10 RIVERVIEW DRIVE, DANBURY CT 06810
Andreas Opfermann	officer: Executive VP, Americas	C/O LINDE, THE PRIESTLEY CENTRE, 10 PRIESTLEY ROAD, GUILDFORD, SURREY X0 GU2 7XY
Sanjiv Lamba	officer: Chief Operating Officer	THE PRIESTLEY CENTRE, 10 PRIESTLEY RD, SURREY RESEARCH PARK, GUILDFORD, SURREY X0 GU2 7XY
Mr. Franz Fehrenbach	Director
Franz Fehrenbach	director	THE PRIESTLEY CENTRE, 10 PRIESTLEY ROAD, THE SURREY RESEARCH PARK, GUILDFORD, SURREY X0 GU2 7XY
John Panikar	officer: Executive VP, APAC	39 OLD RIDGEBURY ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810-5113
Alberto Weisser	director
Josef Kaeser	director	HIGH TECH CAMPUS 60, EINDHOVEN P7 5656AG
Juergen Nowicki	officer: Executive VP, Engineering	C/O LINDE PLC, THE PRIESTLEY CENTRE, 10 PRIESTLEY ROAD, GUILDFORD, SURREY X0 GU2 7XY