Granite Point Mortgage Trust (Granite Point Mortgage Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Granite Point Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Granite Point Mortgage Trust (Granite Point Mortgage Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc (NYSE:GPMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

AOMR NREF REFI SEVN SACH IVR AAIC ORC AJX MITT NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR

Traded in Other Exchanges

GPMTpA.PFD:USA G18:Germany

Address

3 Bryant Park, Suite 2400A, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.gpmtreit.com

Granite Point Mortgage Trust Inc focuses on directly originating, investing in, and managing senior floating-rate commercial mortgage loans and other debt and debt-like commercial real estate investments. The company constructs its investment portfolio on a loan-by-loan basis, emphasizing rigorous credit underwriting, selectivity, and diversification, and assesses each investment from a fundamental value perspective relative to other opportunities available in the market. It typically provides intermediate-term bridge or transitional financing for a variety of purposes, including acquisitions, recapitalizations, refinancing, and a range of business plans, including lease-up, renovation, repositioning, and repurposing of the property.

Executives

John A Taylor	director, officer: President and CEO	3 BRYANT PARK, #2400A, NEW YORK NY 10036
Marcin Urbaszek	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3 BRYANT PARK, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Sheila K. Mcgrath	director	3 BRYANT PARK, SUITE 2400A, NEW YORK NY 10036
William Reid Sanders	director	C/O TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP., 1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Stephen Alpart	officer: Chief Investment Officer	3 BRYANT PARK, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Steven Plust	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3 BRYANT PARK, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael J. Karber	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	3 BRYANT PARK, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Peter M. Morral	officer: Chief Development Officer	3 BRYANT PARK, SUITE 2400A, NEW YORK NY 10036
Devin Chen	director	650 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Rebecca B Sandberg	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Brian Taylor	director	C/O PINE RIVER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 601 CARLSON PARKWAY, 7TH FLOOR, MINNETONKA MN 55305
William Roth	director	TWO HARBORS INVESTMENT CORP., 601 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Two Harbors Investment Corp.	10 percent owner	1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Capitol Acquisition Corp	10 percent owner	601 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Two Harbors Operating Co Llc	10 percent owner	601 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 1400, MINNETONKA MN 55305