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Blyth (FRA:BY3N) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % : 0.00% (As of Jun. 2015)


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What is Blyth Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %?

Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Blyth's forward rate of return for was 0.00%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

FRA:BY3N' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -14.8   Med: 11.3   Max: 59.7
Current: -7.47

During the past 13 years, Blyth's highest Forward Rate of Return was 59.70. The lowest was -14.80. And the median was 11.30.

FRA:BY3N's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is not ranked
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry.
Industry Median: 7.48 vs FRA:BY3N: -7.47

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Blyth Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Blyth Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart

Blyth Annual Data
Trend Jan05 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 27.51 20.18 16.90 22.39 5.07

Blyth Quarterly Data
Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Mar12 Jun12 Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 11.60 7.16 5.07 -11.75 -

Competitive Comparison of Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Blyth Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Blyth's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2015 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=0.87009524/6.18+-0.2975
=-15.67 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Blyth  (FRA:BY3N) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Blyth Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blyth's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Blyth (FRA:BY3N) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Blyth Inc was incorporated on September 9, 1977. The Company is a multi-channel company focused on the direct to consumer market. The Company designs and markets home fragrance products and decorative accessories, as well as weight management products, nutritional supplements and energy drinks. Its products include decorative and functional household products such as candles, accessories, seasonal decorations, household convenience items and personalized gifts; nutritional supplements such as meal replacement shakes, vitamins and energy mixes; as well as products for the foodservice trade. Its products can be found throughout North America, Europe and Australia. The Company has three business segments the Health and Wellness segment, the Candles and Home Decor segment and the Catalog and Internet segment. Within the Health and Wellness segment, it operates ViSalus, which is sells meal replacement shakes, nutritional supplements, nutritional cookies and energy drinks. Products in this segment are sold through networks of independent sales promoters in the United States and Canada. Within the Candles and Home Decor segment, it designs, manufactures or sources, markets and distributes a line of products including scented candles, candle-related accessories and other fragranced products under the PartyLite brand. PartyLite also offers gourmet foods under the Two Sisters Gourmet by PartyLite brand name. Products in this segment are sold through networks of independent sales consultants. PartyLite brand products are sold in North America, Europe and Australia. Within the Catalog and Internet segment, it designs, sources and markets household convenience items, holiday cards, personalized gifts, kitchen accessories, premium photo albums and frames. These products are sold directly to consumers under the Miles Kimball, Walter Drake, Easy Comforts, As we Change and Exposures brands. These products are sold in North America. Competition in the Candles and Home Decor segment includes companies selling candles manufactured at lower costs through direct selling and retail channels. Competition in the Health and Wellness segment includes companies selling competitive nutritional supplements and weight-loss management products through direct selling and retail channels. In the Health and Wellness and the Candles and Home Decor segments it competes for consultants or promoters with other direct selling companies, both those that sell similar products and those that sell other types of products. The Companys direct selling and network marketing programs are subject to federal and state regulations administered by the FTC and various state agencies as well as regulations in foreign markets administered by foreign agencies.

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