What is Virtus Total Return Fund Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Virtus Total Return Fund Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Virtus Total Return Fund (Virtus Total Return Fund) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 Munson Street, Greenfield, MA, USA, 01301-9668
Virtus Total Return Fund Inc is a closed-end, diversified management investment company. Its investment objective is capital appreciation, with current income as a secondary objective. The company provides solutions to individuals, financial advisors, and institutions.
Executives
| Bradley William Patrick Iii |
officer: VP, CFO & Treasurer |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 56 PROSPECT STREET, HARTFORD CT 06115 |
| Philip R Mcloughlin |
director |
800 SCUDDERS HILL ROAD, PLAINSBORO NJ 08536 |
| Brian T Zino |
director |
100 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Virtus Partners Inc |
other: Affiliate of the Adviser |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 100 PEARL ST., 9TH FLOOR, HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| James M Oates |
director |
C/O INVESTORS FINANCIAL SERVICES CORP, 200 CLARENDON ST, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Willliam R Moyer |
director |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| George W Karpus |
10 percent owner |
|
| Wright William H Ii |
director |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, 100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| David Dickerson |
officer: SVP & PM of the Adviser |
|
| Christopher Ruddy |
director |
1120 BEAR ISLAND DRIVE WEST PALM BEACH FL 33409 |
| Carlton Neel |
officer: SVP & Portfolio Manager |
ZWEIG FUNDS 900 THIRD AVE NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Wendy W Luscombe |
director |
480 TAGHKANIC CHURCH TOWN ROAD, CRARYVILLE NY 12521 |
| Rogers James B Jr |
director |
14 WESLEY STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11 |
| George R Aylward |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O VIRTUS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, INC., 100 PEARL STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103 |
| William J Renahan |
officer: Chief Legal Off. & Secretary |
399 PARK AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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