What is Weingarten Realty Investors Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Weingarten Realty Investors Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Weingarten Realty Investors (Weingarten Realty Investors) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2600 Citadel Plaza Drive, Suite 125, Houston, TX, USA, 77008
Weingarten, founded in 1948, is a self-advised REIT that owns, acquires, and develops neighborhood shopping centers. Ownership interest in more than 300 retail assets (47 msf) is diversified in 22 states with the top 10 tenants accounting for 14% of revenue. The largest state concentrations are Texas, Florida, and California, comprising 67% of rents. Economic occupancy is 91.2% and 75% of tenants are national/regional. Differentiating Weingarten is a 9% inside ownership in its outstanding shares, compared with a 1%-3% REIT industry average.
Executives
| Shelaghmichael C. Brown |
director |
1511 NANTUCKET, HOUSTON TX 77057 |
| C Park Shaper |
director |
1001 LOUISIANA, STE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Marc J Shapiro |
director |
J.P. MORGAN CHASE & CO., 270 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Thomas L Ryan |
director |
1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77219 |
| Stephen A Lasher |
director |
|
| Douglas W Schnitzer |
director |
|
| Andrew M Alexander |
director, officer: CHAIRMAN/CEO/PRESIDENT |
|
| Stephen C Richter |
officer: EXEC VP/CFO |
|
| Johnny Hendrix |
officer: Executive VP/COO |
|
| Stanford J Alexander |
director, officer: CHAIRMAN |
2600 JCITADEL PLAZA DRIVE HOUSTON TX 77008 |
| James W Crownover |
director |
|
| Melvin A Dow |
director |
|
| Robert J Cruikshank |
director |
2001 KIRBY, SUITE 313, HOUSTON TX 77019 |
| Martin Debrovner |
officer: VICE CHAIRMAN |
|
| J Murry Bowden |
director |
2600 CITADEL PLAZA DRIVE STE. 300 HOUSTON TX 77008 |
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