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UTi Worldwide (UTi Worldwide) Predictability Rank


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What is UTi Worldwide Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


UTi Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

UTi Worldwide Predictability Rank Related Terms

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UTi Worldwide (UTi Worldwide) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
UTi Worldwide Inc was incorporated in the British Virgin Islands on January 30, 1995 under the International Business Companies Act as an international business company and operates under the British Virgin Islands legislation governing corporations. The Company's segments include: Freight Forwarding and Contract Logistics and Distribution Segment. Freight Forwarding the Company do not own or operate aircraft or vessels and, consequently, contract with commercial carriers to arrange for the shipment of cargo. In Contract Logistics and Distribution Segment; provides services relating to value-added warehousing and the subsequent distribution of goods and materials in order to meet clients inventory needs and production or distribution schedules. The Company operates a network of freight forwarding offices and contract logistics and distribution centers in a total of 60 countries. In addition, it serves its clients in 100 additional countries through independent agent-owned offices. The Companys business is managed from main support offices located in Long Beach, California, and several other locations. The Companys primary services include air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage, distribution, inbound logistics and truckload brokerage. It also provides other supply chain management services, including consulting, the coordination of purchase orders and customized management services. Through its supply chain planning and optimization services, it assists its clients in designing and implementing solutions that improve the predictability and visibility and reduce the overall costs of their supply chains. As a freight forwarder, it conducts business as an indirect carrier and occasionally as an authorized agent for an airline. It acts as an indirect carrier with respect to shipments of freight. It arranges for, and in many cases provides, pick-up and delivery service between the carrier and the location of the shipper or recipient. When it acts as an authorized agent for an airline or ocean carrier, it arranges for the transportation of individual shipments to the airline or ocean carrier. As part of its freight forwarding services, it provides customs brokerage services in the United States and other countries in which it operates. As part of its customs brokerage services, it prepares and files formal documentation required for clearance through customs agencies, obtain customs bonds, facilitate the payment of import duties on behalf of the importer, arrange for payment of collect freight charges, assist with determining and obtaining the commodity classifications for shipments and perform other related services. The Companys contract logistics services include receiving, deconsolidation and decontainerization, sorting, put away, consolidation, assembly, cargo loading and unloading, assembly of freight and protective packaging, warehousing services, order management, and customized distribution and
Executives
Donald W Slager director C/O ALLIED WASTE INDUSTRIES, 15880 N. GREENWAY-HAYDEN LOOP, STE. 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Langley C John Jr director 19433 LAUREL PARK RD, RANCHO DOMINGUEZ CA 90220