Upstart Holdings (Upstart Holdings) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Upstart Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Upstart Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Upstart Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Upstart Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Upstart Holdings (Upstart Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Upstart Holdings Inc (NAS:UPST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UPST:Mexico 855:Germany 855:Germany

Address

2950 S. Delaware Street, Suite 300, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403

Website

https://www.upstart.com

Upstart Holdings Inc provides credit services. The company provides a proprietary, cloud-based, artificial intelligence lending platform. The platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to the network of Upstart AI-enabled bank partners. The revenue of the company comprised of fees paid by banks.

Executives

Sanjay Datta	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O UPSTART HOLDINGS, INC., 2950 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Scott Darling	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O STITCH FIX, INC., 1 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 1500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Paul Gu	director, officer: SVP, Product and Data Science	C/O UPSTART HOLDINGS, INC., 2950 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Natalia Mirgorodskaya	officer: Corporate Controller	C/O UPSTART HOLDINGS, INC., 2950 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Dave Girouard	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O UPSTART HOLDINGS, INC., 2950 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Kerry Whorton Cooper	director	77 BEALE ST., P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Alison Nicoll	officer: General Counsel	C/O UPSTART HOLDINGS, INC., 2950 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Daniel S Loeb	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote (1)	THIRD POINT LLC, 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Third Point Llc	10 percent owner	55 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001
Cassidy Sukhinder Singh	director	C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS INC, 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Mary Hentges	director	C/O SHOTSPOTTER, INC., 7979 GATEWAY BLVD., STE. 210, NEWARK CA 94560
Terry Hilliard C. Iii	director	ONE SW COLUMBIA ST STE 1200, PORTLAND OR 97258
Anna M. Counselman	officer: SVP, People and Operations	C/O UPSTART HOLDINGS, INC., 2950 S. DELAWARE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Jeff Huber	director	209 REDWOOD SHORES PARKWAY, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Robert S Schwartz	director	C/O THIRD POINT LLC, 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022