Universal Health Realtyome Trust (Universal Health Realtyome Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Universal Health Realtyome Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Universal Health Realtyome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Universal Health Realtyome Trust (Universal Health Realtyome Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Universal Health Realty Income Trust (NYSE:UHT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

GMRE CHTH DHC HLTC CHCT NHHS STRW CVMCA LTC AHR WELL VTR DOC OHI HR CTRE SBRA XBRU:AED NHI MPW

Traded in Other Exchanges

WY8:Germany

Address

367 South Gulph Road, P.O. Box 61558, Universal Corporate Center, King of Prussia, PA, USA, 19406-0958

Website

https://www.uhrit.com

Universal Health Realty Income Trust is a healthcare REIT. The company is engaged in the business of investing in and leasing healthcare and human service facilities through direct ownership or through joint ventures, which aggregate into a single reportable segment. The company actively manages a portfolio of healthcare and human service facilities. The revenue and net income are generated from the operation of the investment portfolio which is located throughout the United States.

Executives

Alan B Miller	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Robert F Mccadden	other: Trustee	C/O PENN. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST, 200 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19102
Rebecca A Guzman	director	1201 NORTH MARKET STREET, SUITE 501, WILMINGTON DE 19801-1659
Karla J Peterson	officer: Vice President	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Michael Allan Domb	director	1845 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 2200, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
James P Morey	director	334 AUBREY ROAD, WYNNEWOOD PA 19096
Gayle L Capozzalo	director	789 HOWARD AVENUE, 1059 CLINIC BUILDING, NEW HAVEN CT 06519
Charles F Boyle	officer: Vice President and CFO	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Randall C Stein	other: Trustee	940 HAVERFORD ROAD, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Marc D Miller	other: Trustee	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Cheryl K Ramagano	officer: VP, Treasurer & Secretary	367 SOUTH GULPH ROAD, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406
Miles L Berger	other: Trustee
Myles H Tanenbaum	other: Trustee
Sussman Elliot J Md Mba	other: Trustee
Dalton James E Jr	other: Trustee	6505 EDINBURGH DR, NASHVILLE TN 37221