What is Urstadt Biddle Properties Predictability Rank?
1.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Urstadt Biddle Properties Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Urstadt Biddle Properties (Urstadt Biddle Properties) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
321 Railroad Avenue, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830
Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc is a real estate investment trust. It is engaged in acquisition, ownership, and management of the commercial real estate. The company's business is the ownership of real estate investments, which consist principally of investments in income-producing properties, with primary emphasis on neighborhood and community shopping centers in the metropolitan New York tri-state area outside of the City of New York. The company's operating segment is one of its property, Ridgeway, located in Stamford, Connecticut, US.
Executives
| Bryan O. Colley |
director |
83 NORTH SALEM ROAD, CROSS RIVER NY 10518 |
| Kevin J Bannon |
director |
62 CROTON AVENUE, MOUNT KISCO NY 10549 |
| Elinor F Urstadt |
10 percent owner |
6 BEECHWOOD ROAD, BRONXVILLE NY 10708 |
| Estate Of Urstadt, Charles J. |
10 percent owner |
6 BEECHWOOD ROAD, BRONXVILLE NY 10708 |
| Stephan A Rapaglia |
officer: SVP and COO |
8 OLD MUSKET LANE, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877 |
| John T Hayes |
officer: Senior VP and CFO |
321 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Stephens Willis H. Jr. |
director |
15 MT. EBO ROAD SOUTH, P.O. BOX 408, BREWSTER NY 10509 |
| Charles J Urstadt |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of Board & CEO |
321 RAILROAD AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Miyun Sung |
officer: SVP and CLO |
4-75 48TH AVENUE #705, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11109 |
| Carpenter Noble O Jr |
director |
18 HAWTHORNE ROAD, BRONXVILLE NY 10708 |
| Thomas D Myers |
officer: Co-Counsel |
321 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Catherine U Biddle |
director |
53 ELMWOOD ROAD, SOUTH SALEM NY 10590 |
| Richard Grellier |
director |
4 EGGLESTON LANE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870 |
| Robert J Mueller |
director |
321 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Raymond P Argila |
officer: Senior Vice President |
321 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
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