Time Warner (Time Warner) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is Time Warner Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Time Warner Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Time Warner Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Time Warner's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Time Warner (Time Warner) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Time Warner Inc (NYSE:TWX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.timewarner.com

Time Warner is a pure-play entertainment company that owns several television networks, including HBO, CNN, TNT, and the CW. The filmed entertainment segment creates and distributes movies and television programming for internal and external distribution outlets. Warner Bros. and New Line Cinema combine to form the largest filmmaker in the world. The company owns a deep and valuable content library that includes popular movie franchises such as DC Comics and Harry Potter and television programs such as Friends and The Big Bang Theory.

Executives

Fred Hassan	director	C/O CARET GROUP,, 1100 HOLLAND DR., BOCA RATON FL 33487
Douglas Edward Horne	officer: SVP and Controller	ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Gary L Ginsberg	officer: Executive Vice President	TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Olaf Olafsson	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O TIME WARNER INC. ONE TIME WARNER CENTER NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul Wachter	director	C/O TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Robert C Clark	director	C/O TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
William P Barr	director	C/O TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Howard M Averill	officer: EVP and CFO	CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY, ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Paul T Cappuccio	officer: EVP and General Counsel	TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Carlos M Gutierrez	director	5 GREENWAY PLAZA, STE 110, HOUSTON TX 77046
Carol A Melton	officer: Executive Vice President	4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Jessica P Einhorn	director	C/O BLACKROCK, INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Mathias Dopfner	director	C/O TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019
Deborah C Wright	director	CARVER BANCORP, INC, 75 W. 125TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10027
James L Barksdale	director	C/O TIME WARNER INC., ONE TIME WARNER CENTER, NEW YORK NY 10019