Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
St Jude Medical Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
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St Jude Medical (St Jude Medical) Business Description
St Jude Medical Inc was incorporated in Minnesota in 1976. It develops, manufactures and distributes cardiovascular medical devices for the cardiac rhythm management, cardiovascular and atrial fibrillation therapy areas and neurostimulation medical devices for the management of chronic pain. The Company's two segments are the Implantable Electronic Systems Division and the Cardiovascular and Ablation Technologies Division. The Company's principal products in each business unit are as follows: Implantable Electronic Systems Division (IESD) - tachycardia implantable cardioverter defibrillator systems (ICDs), bradycardia pacemaker systems (pacemakers) and neurostimulation products (spinal cord and deep brain stimulation devices); and Cardiovascular and Ablation Technologies Division (CATD) - vascular products (vascular closure products, pressure measurement guidewires, optical coherence tomography (OCT) imaging products, vascular plugs and other vascular accessories), structural heart products (heart valve replacement and repair products and structural heart defect devices) and atrial fibrillation (AF) products (electrophysiology (EP) introducers and catheters, cardiac mapping, navigation and recording systems and ablation systems). Implantable Electronic Systems Division (IESD): IESD is focused on the cardiac rhythm management and neuromodulation therapy areas. Cardiac rhythm management devices include ICDs that provide life-saving therapy to patients suffering from lethal heart conditions, such as sudden cardiac arrest; cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices to save and improve the lives of patients suffering from heart failure (HF); pacemakers to help patients whose hearts beat too slowly or who suffer from other debilitating cardiac arrhythmias; leads (wires that connect devices to the heart) to carry electrical impulses to the heart and provide information from the heart to the device; and programmers and remote monitoring equipment which are used by physicians and healthcare professionals to program is cardiac rhythm management devices and analyze device data to improve patient management. Neuromodulation product offerings provide neurostimulation treatment in which an implantable device delivers electrical current directly to targeted nerve sites. The Company's commercialized neurostimulation therapies include spinal cord stimulation (SCS) for the treatment of chronic pain, deep brain stimulation (DBS) for treating the symptoms of Parkinson's disease and peripheral nerve stimulation (PNS) for the treatment of chronic migraine headache. A neurostimulation system typically consists of four components: a pulse generator that produces the electrical current and is implanted under the patient's skin; implanted leads that carry the electrical impulses to the targeted nerve sites; an external patient remote control that enables the patient to control his or her therapy within prescribed ranges; and an external clinician pro
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