What is Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores (Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5500 Trillium Boulevard, Suite 501, Hoffman Estates, IL, USA, 60192
Sears Hometown and Outlet Stores Inc is a national retailer engaged in the selling of home appliances, lawn and garden equipment, and hardware at its stores and on its websites. It also offers its customers the opportunity to acquire home appliance, lawn and garden, fitness, bedding, and other categories of merchandise and product protection agreements through the lease-to-own program that it operates by agreement with a third party. Its business segments are the Sears Hometown and Hardware, and the Sears Outlet.
Executives
| William K Phelan |
director |
3333 BEVERLY ROAD HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179 |
| James F Gooch |
director |
C/O 5500 TRILLIUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 501, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192 |
| Josephine Linden |
director |
6601 SOUTH BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119 |
| Esl Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR FL 33154 |
| Esl Investments Inc |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR ISLANDS FL 33154 |
| Edward S Lampert |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOUR FL 33154 |
| Rbs Partners L P /ct |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR ISLANDS FL 33154 |
| Ryan D Robinson |
officer: Senior VP and CFO/CAO |
5500 TRILLIUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 501, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192 |
| Rbs Investment Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR FL 33154 |
| Esl Institutional Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR FL 33154 |
| Crk Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR ISLANDS FL 33154 |
| Spe Master I, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR FL 33154 |
| Spe I Partners, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
1170 KANE CONCOURSE, SUITE 200, BAY HARBOR FL 33154 |
| Jeffrey Flug |
director |
C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| William R Harker |
director |
5500 TRILLIUM BOULEVARD, SUITE 501, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192 |
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