REV Group (REV Group) Predictability Rank

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What is REV Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

REV Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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REV Group (REV Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » REV Group Inc (NYSE:REVG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1RG:Germany

Address

245 South Executive Drive, Suite 100, Brookfield, WI, USA, 53005

Website

https://www.revgroup.com

REV Group Inc is a United States-based designer, manufacturer, and distributor of specialty vehicles and related aftermarket parts and services. It provides customized vehicle solutions for applications including essential needs, industrial and commercial, and consumer leisure. The operating segments of the company are Fire & Emergency, Commercial, and Recreation. The products of the company are sold to municipalities, government agencies, private contractors, consumers, and industrial and commercial end-users. It derives a majority of the revenue from the Fire and Emergency segment which includes manufacturing of fire apparatus and ambulance products. The company operates in the United States, Canada, and the rest of the world.

Executives

Stephen Zamansky	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Sec
Maureen Oconnell	director
Joseph Ladue	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	245 SOUTH EXECUTIVE DR, SUITE 100, BROOKFIELD WI 53005
Paul J Bamatter	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Joel M. Rotroff	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Dino M Cusumano	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Justin Fish	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Skonieczny Jr. Mark A	officer: Chief Financial Officer	833 E MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 1100, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Christopher M Daniels	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	111 E. KILBOURN AVE., SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Rodney M Rushing	director, officer: CEO and President	5757 N GREEN BAY AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Stephen W. Boettinger	officer: General Counsel	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 E KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Randall Swift	director	450 LEXINGTON AVE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dean J Nolden	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Timothy W Sullivan	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
John Canan	director	C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202