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REV Group (REV Group) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $11.99 (As of May. 26, 2024)


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What is REV Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-05-26), REV Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $11.99.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

REV Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for REV Group is -126.86%.

The historical rank and industry rank for REV Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

REVG's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry.
Industry Median: 0.55
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

REV Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for REV Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

REV Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

REV Group Annual Data
Trend Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
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REV Group Quarterly Data
Apr19 Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of REV Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery subindustry, REV Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


REV Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery Industry

For the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry and Industrials sector, REV Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where REV Group's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



REV Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.47%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> REV Group's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $1.039.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

REV Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.039*11.5406
=11.99

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(11.99-27.20)/11.99
=-126.86 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


REV Group  (NYSE:REVG) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


REV Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of REV Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


REV Group (REV Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
245 South Executive Drive, Suite 100, Brookfield, WI, USA, 53005
REV Group Inc is a United States-based designer, manufacturer, and distributor of specialty vehicles and related aftermarket parts and services. It provides customized vehicle solutions for applications including essential needs, industrial and commercial, and consumer leisure. The operating segments of the company are Fire & Emergency, Commercial, and Recreation. The products of the company are sold to municipalities, government agencies, private contractors, consumers, and industrial and commercial end-users. It derives a majority of the revenue from the Fire and Emergency segment which includes manufacturing of fire apparatus and ambulance products. The company operates in the United States, Canada, and the rest of the world.
Executives
Stephen Zamansky officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Sec
Maureen Oconnell director
Joseph Ladue officer: Chief Accounting Officer 245 SOUTH EXECUTIVE DR, SUITE 100, BROOKFIELD WI 53005
Paul J Bamatter director C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Joel M. Rotroff director C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Dino M Cusumano director C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Justin Fish director C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Skonieczny Jr. Mark A officer: Chief Financial Officer 833 E MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 1100, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Christopher M Daniels officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 111 E. KILBOURN AVE., SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Rodney M Rushing director, officer: CEO and President 5757 N GREEN BAY AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Stephen W. Boettinger officer: General Counsel C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 E KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Randall Swift director 450 LEXINGTON AVE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dean J Nolden officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Timothy W Sullivan director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
John Canan director C/O REV GROUP, INC., 111 EAST KILBOURN AVENUE, SUITE 2600, MILWAUKEE WI 53202