Pactiv Evergreen (Pactiv Evergreen) Predictability Rank

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What is Pactiv Evergreen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pactiv Evergreen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pactiv Evergreen (Pactiv Evergreen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Pactiv Evergreen Inc (NAS:PTVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PEG:Germany PEG:Germany

Address

1900 West Field Court, Lake Forest, IL, USA, 60045

Website

https://www.pactivevergreen.com

Pactiv Evergreen Inc is engaged in the business of manufacturing and distributing fresh foodservice and food merchandising products and fresh beverage cartons. It operates in three segments: Foodservice, Food Merchandising, and Beverage Merchandising. These segments manufacture a broad range of products such as food containers, drinkware, tableware, service ware, ready-to-eat food containers, clear rigid-display containers, trays for meat and poultry, molded fiber egg cartons, printed cartons, spouts & filling machines, and other products. The company's geographical segments are the United States, the Rest of North America, and Others, of which the vast majority of its revenue comes from the United States.

Executives

Allen Hugli	director	C/O RANK GROUP, LEVEL II, 148 QUAY ST, AUCKLAND Q2 00000
Duncan Hawkesby	director	C/O PACTIV EVERGREEN INC., 1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Tim A. Levenda	officer: President, Foodservice	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Jonathan Baksht	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5847 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 3300, HOUSTON TX 77057
Eric Wulf	officer: President, Food Merchandising	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Chandra J Mitchell	officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec.	C/O 7 ACQUISITION CORPORATION, 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Douglas Owenby	officer: Chief Operations Officer	C/O PACTIV EVERGREEN INC, 1900 W FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Byron Jason Racki	officer: Pres., Beverage Merchandising	3460 PRESTON RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 600, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Michael Jack King	director	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Rolf Stangl	director	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
John P. Rooney	officer: Pres, Beverage Merchandising	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Michael Ragen	officer: COO and CFO	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Jonathan D Rich	director	1144 EAST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44316-0001
John T. Mcgrath	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1900 W. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Felicia D Thornton	director	250 PARKCENTER BLVD PO BOX 20, BOISE ID 83726