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Piedmont Natural Gas Co (Piedmont Natural Gas Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Piedmont Natural Gas Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Piedmont Natural Gas Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Piedmont Natural Gas Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Piedmont Natural Gas Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Piedmont Natural Gas Co (Piedmont Natural Gas Co) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Piedmont Natural Gas Co Inc was incorporated in New York in 1950 and began operations in 1951. In 1994, it merged into a newly formed North Carolina corporation with the same name for the purpose of changing its state of incorporation to North Carolina. The Company is an energy services company whose business is distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial and power generation clients in portions of North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee, including customers served by municipalities who are its wholesale customers. The Company is invested in joint venture, energy-related businesses, including unregulated retail natural gas marketing, regulated interstate natural gas transportation and storage and regulated intrastate natural gas transportation. It provides service from resource centers in Anderson, Greenville and Spartanburg in South Carolina and Charlotte, Salisbury, Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Burlington, Hickory, Indian Trail, Spruce Pine, Reidsville, Fayetteville, New Bern, Wilmington, Tarboro, Elizabeth City, Rockingham and Goldsboro in North Carolina. In North Carolina, it also provides natural gas service to Greenville, Rocky Mount and Wilson. In Tennessee, its service area is the metropolitan area of Nashville, including wholesale natural gas service to Gallatin and Smyrna. The Company has three reportable business segments, regulated utility, regulated non-utility activities and unregulated non-utility activities. The regulated utility segment includes operating a safe and reliable natural gas distribution system and the ability to recover the costs and expenses of the business in the rates charged to customers. The regulated non-utility activities segment consists of equity method investments in regulated energy-related joint ventures that are held by the Company's wholly-owned subsidiaries. The unregulated non-utility activities segment consists of its equity method investment in an unregulated energy-related joint venture that is held by a wholly-owned subsidiary. The regulated utility competes with other energy products, such as electricity and propane, in the residential and commercial customer markets. Natural gas for power generation competes with other fuel sources for the generation of electricity, including coal, nuclear and renewable resources. Additionally, as with industrial customers, the Company competes with other pipeline providers to serve the power generation plants.
Executives
Frank H Yoho officer: Senior Vice President 5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1800, DALLAS TX 75240
Thomas E Skains director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO 214 N TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Phillip D Wright director 17988 EDISON AVE., CHESTERFIELD MO 63005
Holding Frank B Jr director 4300 SIX FORKS ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609
Vicki W Mcelreath director PO BOX 33068, CHARLOTTE NC 28233
Minor M Shaw director PO BOX 6721, C/O MICCO CORP, GREENVILLE SC 29606
John W Harris director PO BOX 26532, RICHMOND VA 23261
Kim R Cocklin officer: Vice President C/O ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION, PO BOX 650205, DALLAS TX 75256

Piedmont Natural Gas Co (Piedmont Natural Gas Co) Headlines

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