PDS Biotechnology (PDS Biotechnology) Predictability Rank

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What is PDS Biotechnology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PDS Biotechnology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PDS Biotechnology (PDS Biotechnology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » PDS Biotechnology Corp (NAS:PDSB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EU6:Germany

Address

25B Vreeland Road, Suite 300, Florham Park, NJ, USA, 07932

Website

https://www.pdsbiotech.com

PDS Biotechnology Corp operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, principally involved in drug discovery in the United States. It is engaged in the treatment of various early-stage and late-stage cancers, including head and neck cancer, prostate cancer, breast cancer, cervical cancer, anal cancer, and other cancers. Its products are based on the proprietary Versamune platform technology, which activates and directs the human immune system to unleash a powerful and targeted attack against cancer cells.

Executives

Spencer D. Brown	officer: Senior VP, General Counsel	25B VREELAND ROAD, SUITE 300, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Matthew C Hill	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O STRATA SKIN SCIENCES, INC., 5 WALNUT GROVE DRIVE, SUITE 140, HORSHAM PA 19044
Delyle W Bloomquist	director, 10 percent owner	RAYONIER ADVANCED MATERIALS INC., 1301 RIVERPLACE BLVD., SUITE 2300, JACKSONVILLE FL 32207
Voorhees Seth Van	officer: Chief Financial Officer	12 HARVEY DRIVE, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Kamil Ali-jackson	director	C/O ACLARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 101 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 400, MALVERN PA 19355
Gregory Gene Freitag	director	13631 PROGRESS BLVD., ALACHUA FL 32615
Stephen C. Glover	director	108 DOCKSIDE CIRCLE, WESTON FL 33327
Otis W Brawley	director	5203 BRISTOL INDUSTRIAL WAY, BUFORD GA 30518
Michael N. King	officer: Interim Chief Financial Office	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Ilian Iliev	director	303 A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Janetta Trochimiuk	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Richard Sykes	director	C/O PDS BIOTECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, 25B VREELAND ROAD, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Frank Bedu-addo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President/CEO	300 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 400, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Lauren Wood	officer: Chief Medical Officer	300 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 4000, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Gregory Conn	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	300 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 4000, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922