Plum Creek Timber Co (Plum Creek Timber Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Plum Creek Timber Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Plum Creek Timber Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Plum Creek Timber Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Plum Creek Timber Co (Plum Creek Timber Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Plum Creek Timber Co Inc (NYSE:PCL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.plumcreek.com

Plum Creek Timber Co Inc was incorporated in Delaware. It is a real estate investment trust. The Company owned approximately 6.6 million acres of timberlands located in 19 states. It manages its timberlands in two business segments: the Northern Resources Segment, consisting of timberlands in Maine, Michigan, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin; and the Southern Resources Segment, consisting of timberlands in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. In addition, its Energy and Natural Resources Segment includes its natural resource businesses that focus on opportunities for oil and natural gas production, construction aggregates and mineral extraction, wind power and communication and transportation rights of way. The Company's real estate segment includes development of certain properties, internally and through joint venture arrangements. The Company's manufacturing segment, also conducted through its wholly-owned taxable REIT subsidiaries, includes two lumber mills, two plywood mills and two medium density fiberboard ("MDF") production lines in Montana and one lumber remanufacturing facility in Idaho. Some of its real estate activities, including its real estate development business, are conducted through its wholly-owned taxable REIT subsidiaries. As of December 31, 2014, the Northern Resources Segment encompassed approximately 3.1 million acres of timberlands and the Southern Resources Segment consisted of approximately 3.6 million acres of timberlands. In its Real Estate Segment, the Company competes with numerous sellers of entitled and unentitled land in hundreds of local markets. The Company's operations are subject to federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations, including laws relating to water, air, solid waste and hazardous substances and the requirements of the Federal Occupational Safety and Health Act and comparable state statutes relating to the health and safety of its employees.

Executives

Sara Grootwassink Lewis	director	C/O CAPITALSOURCE INC., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Michelle J Goldberg	director	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3100, SEATTLE WA 98101
John G Mcdonald	director	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3100, SEATTLE WA 98101-1374
Robin Josephs	director
Martin A White	director	C/O MDU RESOURCES GROUP, INC., PO BOX 5650, BISMARK ND 58506-5650
Thomas M Lindquist	officer: PRESIDENT & COO	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3100, SEATTLE WA 98101-1374
Timothy E Punke	officer: SVP Corp Affairs&Public Policy	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Morgan John F., Sr.	director	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Russell S Hagen	officer: SR. VP, BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Lawrence A Selzer	director	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Rick R Holley	director, officer: CEO	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Marc F Racicot	director	1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
James A Kilberg	officer: SVP, REAL ESTATE & ENR	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Stephen C Tobias	director	NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP, THREE COMMERCIAL PLACE, NORFOLK VA 23510-9219
John H Scully	director	591 REDWOOD HIGHWAY, SUITE 3215, MILL VALLEY CA 94941

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