Oncotelic Therapeutics (Oncotelic Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Oncotelic Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oncotelic Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Oncotelic Therapeutics (Oncotelic Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Oncotelic Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:OTLC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

29397 Agoura Road, Suite 107, Agoura Hills, CA, USA, 91301

Website

https://www.oncotelic.com

Oncotelic Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It focuses on developing drugs for the treatment of orphan oncology indications, developing antisense and small molecule injectable drugs for the treatment of cancer with a focus on rare pediatric cancers, and addressing the current global pandemic. OT-101 is its lead immuno-oncology drug candidate. OT-101 also has activity against SARS-CoV-2. Its other products under pipeline are Artemisinin, CA4P, and Oxi4503. Currently, the company generates revenues from rendering services to other third-party customers for the development of certain drug products or in connection with certain out-licensing agreements.

Executives

Vuong Trieu	officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	4003 JIM BOWIE ROAD, AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Saran Saund	officer: CHIEF BUSINESS OFFICER	C/O MATEON THERAPEUTICS INC., 29397 AGOURA RD SUTIE 107, AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Amit B. Shah	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	10 AGUILA, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Chulho Park	officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER	701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Maida Anthony E Iii	director	157 TECHNOLOGY DR, IRVINE CA 92618
Steven W King	director
David Diamond	director	29397 AGOURA RD., SUITE 107, AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Fatih Uckun	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Medical Officer	701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Chao Hsiao	10 percent owner	701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 201, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Larn Hwang	10 percent owner	C/O MARINA BIOTECH, INC., 17870 CASTLETON STREET, SUITE 250, CITY OF INDUSTRY CA 91748
Donald Rogers Reynolds	director	C/O WYRICK ROBBINS YATES & PONTON LLP, 4101 LAKE BOONE TRAIL, SUITE 300, RALEIGH NC 27607
Sandage Bobby W Phd	director	C/O 99 HAYDEN AVE, 1 LEDGEMONT CENTER, LEXINGTON MA 02173
Simon Pedder	director	1001 MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, BUFFALO NY 14203
Matthew M Loar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	505 PENOBSCOT DR, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Pamela Ha	officer: Controller	701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080